May till Christmas? │ Sebastian Cousins
To be honest, that was a tad melodramatic. And, let’s be real with ourselves, May is not going to budge, nor does the party’s establishment want to do that, with the possibility of another election happening for a new mandate and if Brexit goes wrong that said new leader tainted with Europe and recession, and everyone banging on about it. They may hate May for losing the Tory majority to the impossible – a socialist demagogue -but they can’t axe her and hope that her loyalists will stay quiet (though few, there are enough in the context of a minority government to cause havoc). It’s too much a risk, though I’m sure the brutal, bloodthirsty, machiavellian Tory machine wants to bury the hatchet (in her head).
Some of the grassroots are demanding May goes by the Christmas holidays. However without any obvious Tory MPs with enough support to do such an action (Mogg seems to be quite happy as an eccentric backbencher and Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry seem to lack support or experience for a credible challenge) and the possible leaders who have a chance of winning over the public (Davis, Johnson and ‘Spreadsheet Phil’ Hammond) would have done so before the Queen’s Speech. Therefore I doubt that the members, desperate they are, will be able to crucify her in some sort of reverse . Or indeed Jesus; though I would not equate the two.
Unlike the Labour party or the Lib Dems, the Grassroots of the Tories (though none of the aforementioned parties can directly do so anyway without MPs triggering a contest) have very little choice over who becomes leader. In Labour, everyone votes on leadership at the same time, thanks to Blair and Miliband’s One Member One Vote, and the same in the Lib Dems (though with the AV system as well) apart from the recent coronation of Sir Vince Cable. The Tories- while having membership vote – don’t vote at the same time as MPs. They have a selection of two candidates to pick from and the last time that happened was 2005, between David Cameron and David Davis. The Tory Grassroots lack power, just as Spartacus did.
So, will she go? Well yes, she will go one day- she is not (though Infowars’s Alex Jones and the far left may think so) a demon or a literary character (though less developed than one), or a robot (debatable). I think, as the Tory party is not in the mood for another election where they are likely to lose to the Labour party (and everything a Corbyn premiership entails), they will not risk having a new leader who will be toxified by an unpopular austerity programme and, potentially, a bad Brexit. They will let May take the fall, and like that season of the same name, her decayed tree of Strong and Stable Leadership will be blown over by gale force winds of an angry electorate, populist Labour policy and the youth vote. Then they will rebuild themselves, recreate and regenerate, like a Time Lord (and possibly into another gender).
So I would say the next election (which is either next season or 2022 depending on who you ask) is when May is over and the Labour leader (Corbyn or whoever is in at that time; Labour still has internal problems) will be the PM. I am certain this is going to happen. Then again, I was also certain Hillary would be president, remain would win and the Labour/SNP coalition was going to come to power in 2015.
So I’m probably wrong. But only time will tell.