Trump v..? 2020 Prediction Map | Sarah Stook

In 2020, Trump will run again. Barring all major catastrophes (yes, that includes his first term), it is without a doubt that Trump will try again. His 2020 re-election campaign is already in the works and judging from both actions and comments on the subject, he intends to be a two-term President. Will he win?

Well, that all depends on who runs against him. Sanders might want a regrab of 2016 (many, myself included, think that Sanders could have won against Trump) whilst Biden, after a break away from politics, may decide to finally achieve his dream. Then again, we could have someone who is totally new to the scene. Remember, when Jimmy Carter first ran announced his Presidential run in 1975, his name recognition was 2% and he was almost completely unknown against the infamous Stand in the Schoolhouse Door George Wallace and later Governor of California (and enemy of Clinton), Jerry Brown. Whoever that person is, they need a lot of momentum to beat Donald Trump. Whilst deeply unpopular across the political divide and across the world, Trump still has an extremely loyal base who will turn out, come hell or high water. As people both leave the Trump group and convert to the fandom, it remains to be seen how 2020 will turn out.

 

Joe Biden

  • Senator from Delaware who served an incredible 36 terms. He ran for President twenty years apart in 1988 and 2008, the latter of which he was picked by eventual winner Barack Obama.

  • There will always be the safe states. DC tends to swing blue; Washington is a hugely liberal state whilst Mississippi is extremely conservative. These are the absolutes in this equation; I don’t think Texas will vote for Biden much as New York won’t vote Trump. There will always be conservative areas in New York, such as Staten Island and upstate, but the NYC metro area tends to be solidly Democrat. Metropolitan areas tend to be liberal, rural areas more conservative. They’re definites.
  • I’m convinced Ohio will stay red. Whilst known as the ultimate bellwether state, they tend to swing Republican. Their entire Executive branch is GOP, one of their Senators is, 12/16 Representatives are and they dominate both houses in the Ohio General Assembly. It’s deeply conservative, especially in the rural states and even though Trump had been criticised as not being conservative, he has enough right-wing policies to pass him through. Plus, Ohio is at the heart of the rust belt, and they have gone through a lot of misfortune. Considering how much the Democrats are blamed, I wouldn’t blame them.
  • I also think Pennsylvania and Michigan will fall back to the Democrats. Biden was born and partially raised in Pennsylvania, and whilst he has represented Delaware, it still holds a lot of credence. Voters like people who come from their state, it tends to be a natural part of politics- they feel protective of their own. Take for example 1984. Reagan absolutely crushed that election, taking 49 states and 525 votes. Mondale won his home state of Minnesota by 3,000 votes and also took DC, which has never voted Republican. It was probably the fact that Minnesota was his home state that stopped Reagan taking the prize. As for Michigan, Biden has a great image for the blue-collar workers and considering how many make up Michigan, it wouldn’t be a surprise. Both states are rust belt, but unless Trump does something drastically for them, they may slip away. They’ll either feel they should go back to being blue or they just won’t turn out.
  • Though Virginia turned blue in 2008, 2012 and 2016, I feel it will go red. It was tight in 2012, with the gap slightly widening in 2016. This, however, was probably due to Tim Kaine; Clinton’s VP pick is one of the Senators from the state which gave them a push (as explained above). Virginia seemed receptive to the Obama and Clinton message, but they may be different for Biden. Obviously Biden was Obama’s VP, but he was very critical of Clinton as a candidate in both ’08 and ’16, recently stating that he believed she wasn’t a great candidate. Those Democrats who liked Clinton may slide away.
  • As the Latino population springs up and becomes more populous, Florida will continue as a crucial state. The margin of vote was small in 2016, with Trump winning by just over 100,000 votes. The key here is the Cuban-American voters. Traditionally conservative voters, they are one of the few reliable Latino/Hispanics groups that side with the Republicans, as most Latinos/Hispanics tend to vote Democrat. In 2016, however, we saw a shift in the Cuban-American vote towards Democrats. Considering the sizeable Cuban-American population in the state (70% of Cuban-Americans live in Florida and they have around 1.5 million in that state), it may be hugely detrimental to Trump.

Bernie Sanders:

  • Independent, democratic socialist Senator from Vermont who has spent 10 years in the Senate after many years of experience. Ran as a Democrat in 2016, putting up a surprisingly strong fight against establishment favourite Hillary Clinton.

  • On a non-state basis, I feel Sanders had more political capital. Whilst Clinton was the establishment choice, Trump was not- which is why he did so well when the polls did not predict it. Sanders, like Trump, is the non-establishment vote. Unlike Clinton, he was seen as an honest, fair politician who had not been tied to the Washington cartel (who true that is remains unknown) and was therefore respected by a lot of Democrats and Independents. Many Democrats who couldn’t face voting for Clinton and obviously wouldn’t have voted Trump went to Jill Stein or other independents, splitting a lot of the vote. If Sanders were to win, he may bring the vote back together.
  • There isn’t a massive difference between Biden and Sanders here really. I just feel that Sanders, whilst old, has a lot to gain. I feel the white working-class will like him more than Clinton, as will the rust belters. First time voters gave Obama a massive push in ’08 especially, and Sanders’ popularity amongst the young people- down to his views on things like tuition fees- is pretty great.

Cory Booker:

  • Stanford, Oxford and Yale educated, many see Booker as a new Barack Obama due to him being young, an African-American and very intelligent. He was mayor of Newark, New Jersey for seven years before becoming a US Senator.

  • Michigan was a genuinely difficult decision and it took me several goes to decide whether it should go to Trump or Booker. In favour of Booker, the metropolitan areas-Detroit and Flint have high levels of African-American residents, and considering the tribal voting of blacks in the United States, Booker could easily win these areas. Outside of these parts, however, is a pretty Republican state for someone that had, before Trump, voted Democrat for many Presidential elections. The main executive- Governor, Lt. Governor are nearly all GOP, as are most of their Representatives. It was a tight election between Trump and Clinton and considering he just managed to edge it, I think the scales may tip in his favour a little more next time. That will especially true if he reinvigorates the rust belt.
  • I don’t think Booker will be able to manage Pennsylvania and Ohio like Biden or Sanders possibly could. Whilst they have a blue-collar appeal, Booker is a more moderate man who actually has some conservative views- such as his strong beliefs in the rights of gun owners. Booker is more a smooth, Obama establishment type who will appeal to the middle and upper class liberals as opposed to the working-class Democrats who fell to Trump and whom they want to appeal to again.

Kamala Harris:

  • A Jamaican-Indian, Harris went to the predominantly black Howard University before attending Hastings at University of California for her law degree. After becoming District Attorney in San Francisco (where she controversially refused the death penalty for an undocumented gang member who murdered three people), she became Attorney General for California in 2010. She was elected Senator in 2016.

  • Florida was a very hard call, so I decided to make it a toss-up. In Harris’ favour, there is a huge ethnic minority population that is likely to go for her. Her softness on immigration will make her popular amongst the Latino community, for whom this is a concern for many, and she obviously will have the liberal vote on other general issues. Trump’s surprise victory, however, shows how conservative Florida leans. Florida has several Republican politicians, including the Governor, and Senator Marco Rubio. Generally, it will depend on turnout- ethnic minorities are less likely to vote than whites, but if they do, they could give Harris a victory. If not, it’s Trump 2020- everyone knows Florida gives the winners. In the end, I decided to give it a 50/50.
  • Whilst Trump will probably still get Ohio and Michigan, I feel Pennsylvania could go to Harris due its Democratic history. It last voted for the Republicans in a Presidential Election in 1988, though there are a mix of Republicans and Democrats in both federal and state politics, with a fully Democratic executive.

Elizabeth Warren:

  • Formerly Republican, Warren was a law professor for a variety of colleges, most notably Harvard, where she became on the finest legal experts on bankruptcy law in the country. Warren was blocked by Republicans and financial institutions from being part of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, so she ran for the Senate (in Ted Kennedy’s former seat) and won. She was the first female Senator in Massachusetts history.

  • Whilst the North East/New England is completely dominated by the Democrats (with the exception of Maine), it would be even more sure for Warren. Firstly, she would do well in Massachusetts as it is her home state, and candidates nearly always win in their home state (sorry Trump). Plus, Warren is the favourite progressive of the WASP liberals and those in Ivy League institutions, nearly all of them centred in New England.
  • Unfortunately, Warren does not have the Midas touch when it comes to the rust belt. Whilst a champion of the middle class, Warren seems to be more of a status quo Democrat, much like Hillary Clinton. Ohio is a hugely important swing state, and Pennsylvania is also essential when deciding winners, so not having those two and Florida will be at a huge detriment to the Senator. Whilst the liberals may turn out in Florida, I feel those who turned to Trump will be loyal GOP votes in 2020, who main even gain more considering how close it was in 2016.

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