US Election: Mallard Forecast 03.11.2020 [ELECTION DAY]
Polls have narrowed! Despite the liberal dominated media saying they have not.
Most major pollsters returned a national poll ahead of the anticipated election today. Polls showed an average Biden lead of 7 points. The range of the polls are quite interesting, some having Trump as high as +1, to as wide as +12 for Biden. Of course, not all polls are created equally, with some polling companies more reliable than others. Surprisingly, it was amongst one of the most reliable pollsters, IBD, who Five-Thirty-Eight rank as an, A listed pollster, returned a poll with significant narrowing. They had Joe Biden winning by 3 points. Donald Trump would be a 2/1 favourite by the Mallard Forecast should Joe Biden win by just 3 points, testament to his Electoral College advantage. The Wall Street Journal, another A listed pollster, returned a generic ballot poll showing Biden 5 points ahead. Whilst the Mallard would make Biden a 2/1 favourite to win the Electoral College with a 5-point advantage in the ballot, a small error could see those odds reversed.
The only other A listed polling company to return yesterday was SurveyUSA, who returned a Biden lead of 8 points. An average of the most recent A listed pollster shows Biden with a 6-point lead.
A polling error similar to 2016, if only accounting for the most recent A list polls, will take Biden mightily close to national vote margin (+4) he needs to win to be the favourite for the Electoral College.
Biden is the slight favourite, but it is close.
National Vote: Biden +4
Republican Votes: 260
Democrat Votes: 278
Pennsylvania and Michigan; Nothing Else Matters
In terms of who becomes the next President, only two states matter. If Donald Trump is to win, he will be counting on Pennsylvania (PA) or Michigan (MI) to be his tipping point state (the state which delivers the 270th vote). If Trump can with either PA or MI, the polls will be out to a large enough degree across key demographics that it will be almost certain that Trumo wins: Texas; Arizona; Florida; North Carolina and Georgia. If Trump wins PA or MI, his changes of re-election go up to 83%.
The bad news is, PA and MI are both states where the result is usually not be confirmed on the day. The Secretary of State for MI has stated the result may not be confirmed until Friday, whilst PA could take as long as November 23 to confirm.
The state to watch on the night will be Florida, which is usually confirmed within a few hours of the last ballot. Meaning that we shout get the Florida result around 3-5am U.K time. Should Biden come out on top in Florida, his chances of winning the Electoral College would increase to 95%.
Aside from Florida, all other battleground states count absentee ballots till at least Wednesday. Meaning that unless a side has a lead greater than the total amount of absentee ballots left to count, the state will not confirm until the back end of the week. What we can be sure of, however, is that the immediate votes to be declared in Arizona, Texas and North Carolina will be early postal votes. Which we expect the Democrats to be leading, then the on the day voting will be counted, in which we expect Trump to surge. How much Trump gains is a key indicator of if he will win the state. Absentee ballots and late postal votes counted in the days after are expected to favour Biden, therefore, If Trump is not leading in his must win states after the on the day votes are counted, his Presidency will be all but over.
Follow Ewell Gregoor on Twitter for updates through the night and to see how the forecast changes as the results come in; and catch the Mallard livestream, in association with the Newcastle University Conservatives and the York Tories!
- Alabama: Safe Republican, 9 Votes
- Alaska: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
- Arizona: Lean Republican, 11 Votes
- Arkansas: Safe Republican, 6 Votes
- California: Safe Democrat, 55 Votes
- Colorado: Safe Democrat, 9 Votes
- Connecticut: Safe Democrat, 7 Votes
- District of Columbia: Safe Democrat, 3 Votes
- Delaware: Safe Democrat, 3 Votes
- Florida: Lean Republican, 29 Votes
- Georgia: Lean Republican, 16 Votes
- Hawaii: Safe Democrat, 4 Votes
- Idaho: Safe Republican, 4 Votes
- Illinois- Safe Democrat, 20 Votes
- Indiana: Safe Republican, 11 Votes
- Iowa: Lean Republican, 6 Votes
- Kansas: Safe Republican, 6 Votes
- Kentucky: Safe Republican, 8 Votes
- Louisiana: Safe Republican, 8 Votes
- Maine (state-wide): Lean Democrat, 2 Votes
- Maine 1st District: Safe Democrat, 1 Vote
- Maine 2nd District: Lean Republican, 1 Vote
- Maryland: Safe Democrat ,10 Votes
- Massachusetts: Safe Democrat, 11 Votes
- Michigan: Lean Democrat, 16 Votes
- Minnesota: Safe Democrat, 10 Votes
- Mississippi: Safe Republican, 6 Votes
- Missouri: Safe Republican, 10 Votes
- Montana: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
- Nebraska: Safe Republican, 5 Votes
- Nevada: Lean Democrat, 6 Votes
- New Hampshire- Safe Democrat, 4 Votes
- New Jersey: Safe Democrat, 14 Votes
- New Mexico: Safe Democrat, 5 Votes
- New York: Safe Democrat, 29 Votes
- North Carolina: Lean Republican, 15 Votes
- North Dakota: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
- Ohio: Lean Republican, 18 Votes
- Oklahoma: Safe Republican, 7 Votes
- Oregon: Safe Democrat, 7 Votes
- Pennsylvania: Lean Democrats, 20 Votes
- Rhode Island: Safe Democrat 4 Votes
- South Carolina: Safe Republican, 9 Votes
- South Dakota: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
- Tennessee: Safe Republican, 11 Votes
- Texas: Safe Republican, 38 Votes
- Utah: Safe Republican, 6 Votes
- Vermont: Safe Democrat, 3 Votes
- Virginia: Safe Democrat, 13 Votes
- Washington: Safe Democrat, 12 Votes
- West Virginia: Safe Republican, 5 Votes
- Wisconsin: Lean Democrat, 10 Votes
- Wyoming: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
Biden to win Popular Vote by 5%