US Election: Mallard Forecast 17.10.2020


Donald Trump has climbed one point this week after consistent strong state polling with the Trafalgar Group, who Real Clear Politics claimed  was the most accurate polling company in 2016. This despite Biden pulling ahead to over 10 points in the National Polls. Reaffirming the consistent message from the Mallard that something cannot be true with the polls.

Trump Biden Other
45%53%2%
Current Outcome Forecast

The story of the week was the Hunter Biden saga. Accusations that the Son of the Democrat nominee has taken huge amounts of money from the China Communist Party, in what is claimed to be a national security breach. The New York Post broke the story in a front-page editorial. Donald Trump Jr released a video explaining the Hunter Biden saga. Trump Jr was direct, and if lying, libellous. It is striking that there was no response from the Biden family to Trump Jr. No accusation that he is lying. No announcement to a call to lawyers to pursue a libel case. Take from that what you will.

The story went from shock to sinister when Twitter and Facebook banned the New York Post Hunter Biden Story. Links were disabled and users posting the article had their accounts restricted. Twitter even went as far as to temporarily ban White House Press Secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, who`s crime was sharing an article.

The New York Post ran a second day front-page splash with the headline, ‘Censored – Facebook and Twitter block Post expose on Hunter Biden files’. Later that evening Senator Josh Hawley wrote to Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and Facebook Founder Mark Zuckerberg, with an invitation to speak before the Senate. Hawley, who claims Twitter and Facebook have broken Campaign Laws, said, “As your company is no doubt aware, corporations are forbidden from contributing anything of value, financial or otherwise, to support the election of candidates for public office,”.

Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham told reporters Thursday morning that they will vote next Tuesday to subpoena Twitter’s Jack Dorsey to appear before the committee.

It is not yet clear how the Hunter Biden saga will play out into the Election. Therefore, it has had no weight on this Forecast. However, expect it to play a big part in the remainder of the Election Campaign. With 17 days to go, its advantage Biden. Just.


Seat Projections:

  1. Alabama: Safe Republican, 9 Votes
  2. Alaska: Safe Republican,   3 Votes
  3. Arizona: Lean Republican, 11 Votes
  4. Arkansas: Safe Republican,  6 Votes
  5. California: Safe Democrat, 55 Votes
  6. Colorado: Safe Democrat, 9 Votes
  7. Connecticut: Safe Democrat, 7 Votes
  8. District of Columbia:  Safe Democrat, 3 Votes
  9. Delaware: Safe Democrat, 3 Votes
  10. Florida: Lean Republican, 29 Votes
  11. Georgia: Lean Republican, 16 Votes
  12. Hawaii: Safe Democrat, 4 Votes
  13. Idaho: Safe Republican, 4 Votes
  14. Illinois- Safe Democrat, 20 Votes
  15. Indiana: Safe Republican, 11 Votes
  16. Iowa: Lean Republican, 6 Votes
  17. Kansas: Safe Republican, 6 Votes
  18. Kentucky: Safe Republican, 8 Votes
  19. Louisiana: Safe Republican, 8 Votes
  20. Maine (state-wide): Lean Democrat, 2 Votes
  21. Maine 1st District: Safe Democrat, 1 Vote
  22. Maine 2nd District: Lean Republican, 1 Vote
  23. Maryland: Safe Democrat ,10 Votes
  24. Massachusetts: Safe Democrat, 11 Votes
  25. Michigan: Learn Democrat, 16 Votes
  26. Minnesota: Safe Democrat, 10 Votes
  27. Mississippi: Safe Republican, 6 Votes
  28. Missouri: Safe Republican, 10 Votes
  29. Montana: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
  30. Nebraska: Safe Republican, 5 Votes
  31. Nevada: Lean Democrat, 6 Votes
  32. New Hampshire- Safe Democrat, 4 Votes
  33. New Jersey: Safe Democrat, 14 Votes
  34. New Mexico: Safe Democrat, 5 Votes
  35. New York: Safe Democrat, 29 Votes
  36. North Carolina: Lean Republican, 15 Votes
  37. North Dakota: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
  38. Ohio: Lean Republican, 18 Votes
  39. Oklahoma: Safe Republican, 7 Votes
  40. Oregon: Safe Democrat, 7 Votes
  41. Pennsylvania: Lean Democrats, 20 Votes
  42. Rhode Island: Safe Democrat 4 Votes
  43. South Carolina:  Safe Republican, 9 Votes
  44. South Dakota: Safe Republican, 3 Votes
  45. Tennessee: Safe Republican, 11 Votes
  46. Texas: Safe Republican, 38 Votes
  47. Utah: Safe Republican, 6 Votes
  48. Vermont: Safe Democrat, 3 Votes
  49. Virginia: Safe Democrat, 13 Votes
  50. Washington: Safe Democrat, 12 Votes
  51. West Virginia: Safe Republican, 5 Votes
  52. Wisconsin: Lean Democrat, 10 Votes
  53. Wyoming: Safe Republican, 3 Votes

Trump: 260

Biden: 278

Biden to win Popular Vote by 5%


Photo Credit.

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1 Response

  1. Tom says:

    Trump will win Michigan and Wisconsin no problem. He may even flip Minnesota.

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