US Election: Mallard Forecast 19.09.2020
Trump closes the gap as Biden moves ahead
Donald Trump has had a healthy week in the polls, with National poll averages showing Biden`s lead over the Incumbent is down to 6%. However, this poll shift has not influenced our Forecast in Trumps favour, as projected increased support was already included in our previous forecasting. Labor Day has passed, meaning the polls now hold more significance. Which is why Biden has creeped ahead on our Forecast.
We believe that Trump has an Electoral College advantage of 4%. Meaning Trump would still be favoured to win the Electoral College with a National Vote defeat margin of 4%. Biden`s poll lead of 6% translates to a 2% buffer between his lead and the point in which the National Vote favours Trump.
There is plenty of good news for the incumbent President. Demonstrated in our forecast which gives him a near even chance of winning a second term.
The economy remains the biggest concern for Americans, with 1 in 5 citing it as their main concern, according to a recent poll by PBS. The President continues to hold the upper hand on this issue. Americans favour Trump (50%) over Biden (43%) when asked who is best placed to lead the country out of a recession. The same poll found that, despite trailing in the polls, Trump voters are generally more enthusiastic about voting for Trump, with 79% saying they are voting for the incumbent and not voting against Biden. Compare this to Joe Biden where only 49% say they are voting for him. With 46% saying they are voting against Donald Trump. It is this reason why we think the Democrat leader is in a precarious position in the upcoming debates.
Support for Black Lives Matter continues to decline as shown in a recent poll by Pew Research, down 12% since June. Whilst it is not clear to what extent Trump benefits from the decline in support for BLM, evidence has shown that the majority of Americans see the Democrats as on the side of the protestors, with the Republicans on the side of police and law and order. If this is to benefit anyone, it would be Donald Trump.
The President would no doubt be pleased to see his favourite pollster Rasmussen produce their first poll showing Trump leading Nationally (+1%). This is also the first major pollster to show a Trump lead since Joe Biden was all but confirmed as Democrat Candidate following Super Tuesday. Whilst many Forecasters snigger at the Rasmussen figures, given that they, rather unorthodoxly for a pollster, publicly declare their support for Trump and engage in anti-Democrat rhetoric. However, it should be noted that in the 2016 Election, Five-Thirty-Eight gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning on the day of the Election. Whilst Rasmussen was the closest Pollster to the to the actual National Vote share. So, while Rasmussen are run by fans of the President and their Twitter content can be a little distasteful at times , they must not be overlooked.
As we reach the home straight in the Election, with the first debate just 10 days away. Joe Biden is out of basement, and Donald Trump is in full campaign mode. And we think it`s still all to play for.