US Election: Mallard Forecast 26.09.2020
For the first time in the Mallard Forecast we just about favour the incumbent on winning another four years. The President has made up considerable ground with respected pollsters in the US, slightly more than previous forecasts had factored in.
Biden’s recent interviews and press conferences have left much to be desired. Just last night when delivering a speech to the US Army, Biden made a pledge that did not get the applause he had planned. Biden then demanded an applause calling the service people ‘stupid bas***ds’, he later accused them of being dull. Biden no doubt has the advantage today. However, with the first debate on Tuesday and the tensions on the streets of American again intensifying, it remains to be seen whether Biden can get through the debates. Biden has been accused of hiding in his basement for much of the campaign, the rare showings often include Biden struggling to speak and making it all to obvious he is reading from a teleprompter. Or in most cases, failing to read from a teleprompter.
The reaction to the debates this week will give us a clearer indication on the Election, we have factored into the forecast that Trump comes out on top, handily. With 38 days until Election Day, we favour Trump; just.
What is going on in America?
Everything about the US Election is strange. Covid19, Black Lives Matter, Wildfires. We can expect the plague of locusts any day. The strangest of all, the Polls. Donald Trump has again had a good week in the National Polls, with YouGov consistently showing Trump within 5 points of Joe Biden. YouGov showed Trump as much as 10 points behind in August, testament to the incumbents fight back. Biden’s lead in the polls has been cut to a national average of 6%. However, despite a narrowing in the national polls, Biden has increased his lead in the battle ground states. Something does not ring true. If Biden is to have gained in Republican seats, that means Trump’s National Poll narrowing must have come in Democrat Seats, which is unlikely.
Strong Biden polling in battleground states made up the start of the week; however, on Thursday, a poll by the Trafalgar Group showed Trump leading in Michigan. The seat controversially fell to Donald Trump in 2016 by the smallest margin in the state’s history, 0.25%. The Democrats contested the seat and only accepted the result a month later when a judge overruled calls for a recount. The State has been widely tipped to swing to the Democrats this time, with polls showing Biden leading by as much as +10. The Presidents favourite pollster, Rasmussen, polled Michigan at the start of the month and found Biden to be +4. So when Trafalgar, a pollster with more credibility than Rasmussen, showed a Trump lead, it left many poll enthusiasts scratching our heads. With the US Election so multifaceted this year, poll relevance could be at an all-time low.
Rioting broke out in America again following the trial of the Police Officers involved in the death of Breonna Taylor. When I say again, I mean more widespread. Riots in Portland have continued for over 100 days since the killing of George Floyd. However, when two officers were cleared of any wrongdoing in the Taylor case, rioting broke out across the US with major cities, D.C, Seattle, Louisville and Austin having the worst of the violence. The officers had been accused of entering the property without knocking, in what is being referred to as a no-knock raid. The District Attorney for Kentucky explained in a press conference following the conclusion of the trial that an eyewitness had confirmed that the Officers had knocked on the door and announced their presence, before entering when no one answered. When the officers entered the house, they were shot at by Kenneth Walker, Taylors boyfriend. Walker admitted to shooting first, of which it was determined that the two officers who returned fire, and in so killing Taylor in the crossfire, were justified in doing so. It is therefore strange that following this announcement, Kamala Harris, the Democrat VP candidate, tweeted in support of the rioters and called for the end of no-knock raids. Harris knew what she was Tweeting was liable to inflame tensions and more importantly, is not true. The protesters had used the no-knock raid lie to justify rioting. It is concerning that Harris would take lines from BLM as oppose to the DA for Kentucky, who coincidentally is black. With protesters already on the street clashing with police, Harris no doubt empowered protestor behaviour. Just two hours after Harris’ Tweet, two police officers were shot. A nadir in political standards.