Reform will lead us to victory
Reform UK, lead by Nigel Farage, is a once in a century opportunity to destabilise the status quo and displace the political establishment in Great Britain. A unique window of time has opened up in which the British people are discontent enough to reject both the Labour party and the Conservative party, throwing their votes behind what currently amounts to a populist vessel without any record of governance.
A recent poll by Ipsos shows Reform UK with 34 percent, 9 points ahead of Labour, continuing its rapid transformation from an irrelevant third party enclave for disgruntled Tories into a serious electoral force; one threatening to be responsible for the first election since 1910 in which a party other than Labour or the Conservatives won the most seats. Whatever your assessment of Nigel Farage’s character, or Zia Yusuf’s intentions, or how sound Reform UK’s policy proposals are, or even just the party’s tactics and rhetoric – I think it’s important to remember both the existential threat this country faces and how important it is for us to gain political power. That is ultimately all that matters – power. If we aren’t working towards winning councillors (thankfully, Reform is), and if we aren’t working towards winning seats in the House of Commons (thankfully, Reform is), then we are wasting our time.
Many people on the right of politics seem to be stricken with reservations when it comes to supporting Reform UK. A caveat with that is when I say “many people on the right of politics” I specifically mean the most politically engaged, most active online group of people on the right. The general logic concludes that Reform is:
- Appealing too much to old people.
- Is ideologically incoherent.
- Has become soft on its core issues (immigration, identity, etc.).
On point one, they have astutely assessed that the Labour party is weakest from its left flank. As such, coming out against the cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance and in favour of scrapping the Two-Child Benefit Cap is a good way of exploiting fragmentation within Labour’s electoral coalition. On point two, Reform has realised that the primary barrier to their electoral success is the degree to which people see Reform as being associated with the Conservative party (by history, by figures within the party, but most importantly by policy and rhetoric). This means that for the next 4 years they will be selling themselves as a fresh, new third party with ideas detached from the old constraints of red-blue, left-right partisan lines.
Regardless of your assessment of how committed they would be on delivering this; they are fundamentally a populist party. If you want Reform to sound like Margaret Thatcher on taxes, welfare and state intervention in the economy you will never be satisfied with them. Finally, on point three, by the nature of us living in a democracy, Reform inevitably has to win votes from the broad, apolitical masses in order to gain a majority in parliament. If that means Reform politicians have to sound like soft, liberal centrists in order to win votes from women aged 30-50 then sobeit.
A predictable wedge emerges from the fact that Nigel Farage needs to appeal to the country but Robert Jenrick needs to appeal to his base – in order for either of them to achieve their current goals. Plenty of figures in politics, predominantly Conservative MPs , currently have the luxury to be able to throw around as much rhetorical red meat as possible because the stakes are so low and they are nowhere near power. Farage, and Reform UK, have no such luxury. They have the weight of a desperate, panicked people on their shoulders and a country that is putting unearned hope into their project.
By Reform’s luck, the Conservative party is playing perfectly into their hands. A Midnightian miracle is unfolding, whereby Nigel Farage and Reform UK are becoming the sensible right wing party with broad appeal across the country and the Conservatives are becoming the fringe, impotent party obsessed with a handful of issues and unable to step outside of pandering to a noisy, narrow clique online.
The two parties are switching places, and yet Reform continues to position itself to the left of the Labour party. In a strange twist of fate, irrespective of the genealogy of the viewpoints of Reform’s officials or its membership, it will actually end up being the Labour party that replaces the Conservative party. What room is there remaining for the Conservative party if Labour are the fiscally responsible, steady-handed, sensible experienced party pleading with the electorate to continue on with the status quo and Reform are the party promoting a radical, progressive populism in opposition to that? Pictured below is the current state of British politics, the lines of attack each major party is making and their direction of travel. On present trends, by 2029 Reform will be the “left wing” option and Labour will be the “right wing” option in our two-party system. Do these terms really mean anything anymore?
I have my own reservations with Reform – I would like a much more radical economic policy from them. I would like to see a party that really lent into nationalist, or even just Corbynite, arguments on banks, big businesses, free trade and the overfinancialisation of the economy. I would like to hear “nationalisation” and “reindustrialisation” a lot more. I would like to hear that Nigel wants to continue fighting “multinationals and the big merchant banks.” I would like Reform to promote an isolationist foreign policy position in defence of Britain’s national interest, rather than being content with the £12.8 billion spent on the Ukraine War and our continued involvement in that proxy war on behalf of American imperialists. Given the state of our public services, infrastructure and just about every facet of British society – I don’t think Reform should be tacitly in favour of 5 percent of GDP, an extra £80 billion, being put into military spending. Nor do I think we should be getting further involved in Middle-Eastern conflicts, something which we haven’t gained from since the Sykes-Picot Agreement. But that’s just me!
Reform UK does not get enough credit for being as broad a tent as it is. It’s open for internal dissent on a whole number of issues. It more closely resembles a National Government in waiting than it does a singular political party. With the help of brilliant figures like Zia Yusuf in prominence, Reform UK is primed for a kind of internal mass line policy pragmatism. I continue to support them irrespective of disagreements because that is the nature of the operation of a political party – you subordinate yourself as an individual to the collective will in order to achieve results. Perhaps right wing people today struggle with this premise because they have never understood the necessity of trade unions, or perhaps because they are too committed to their personal “freedom of speech”.
Primarily, my support for Reform UK is derived from my personal loyalty to, and trust in, Nigel Farage. Secondarily, it is derived from two assumptions on what would occur should Reform win a majority and Nigel Farage be made Prime Minister.
The first assumption is that in such a scenario, half of the seats in the House of Commons predominantly will have been granted to fresh faces and strangers to Westminster. That in and of itself would be an astonishing political event the likes of which this country has never seen before. I’m not really sure the current political and journalist elite can weather a moment that destabilising. All grip on the Overton window and news cycle would be lost and a whole new batch of political advisors, think tanks and journalists would gain patronage overnight. The old regime and its comfortable net of nepotism that is currently maintaining everyone’s position either disintegrates or is seriously diminished in that scenario –before any legislation has been passed.
The second assumption is that, rather than calling for another referendum on electoral reform, they would instead in 2029 run on Proportional Representation and implement it once in power. This would break up our ossified two-party system and put us more in line with the fluid, active democracies of continental Europe. It would mean concern over pressing issues such as demographic change due to mass immigration could never be sidelined again, with all views in the country granted the political representation they deserve.
For those reasons and more, I back Reform UK. It is a calculation, but it’s not as cynical as it used to be. Put simply, my gut tells me to be optimistic about the future of the country and to put my support behind the only party capable of damaging the two parties that have so thoroughly wrecked our beautiful country. We can still save it, we can still restore it, we can still give it a new era to be proud of – but Britain will never have that opportunity unless you put your support and trust in those best placed to gain power.
Now more than ever, Farage must discern between converts and infiltrators
The recent defections of Nadhim Zahawi, Robert Jenrick, and Suella Braverman from the Tories to Reform have caused quite a stir – among both supporters and opponents – yet seemingly for the wrong reasons.
In theory, a political start-up winning the endorsement of a former Chancellor sounds like great news. It certainly looks good on paper. The support of a former high-ranking official potentially brings much-needed insider knowledge and some personal clout to the table.
Unfortunately, this endorsement isn’t just good on paper – it’s only good on paper. Despite it being his defining credential, Nadhim Zahawi was Chancellor for barely two months before being shuffled away under Liz Truss – probably for the best, all things considered.
Nothing of note was achieved during his brief internship at the Treasury. Zahawi’s tenure reminds us of a period of politics rather than any policy – specifically, the end of the last Conservative government; the unpopularity of which continues to contaminate the party’s standing with the public years later.
If Zahawi is known for anything of substance, it’s for being Vaccines minister; at best, some may recall him as a vaguely competent manager of the rollout, while others regard him as a sinister bio-authoritarian technocrat – most notably, the Reform voters who kept the party afloat during Lockdown, when it was jostling for third place with the Liberal Democrats.
Of course, he wasn’t just any Tory MP. Zahawi was among the core Cameron-era intake. When his defection was announced, commentators were quick to note his socially liberal positions, from his support for immigration – including mass amnesty for illegals – to his past support for progressive mainstays like DEI and BLM.
Moreover, his past attacks on Nigel Farage – such as comparing the Reform leader to Joseph Goebbels – and accusations of an unsuccessful bid for a Tory peerage a few months prior have all understandably created trouble for the supposed convert.
This all might sound a bit harsh. People do have Damascene conversions. However, Zahawi’s track record shows that authenticity is really not his strongest point. The day after his promotion to Chancellor under Boris Johnson – at the height of Partygate, no less – Zahawi publicly called for Johnson’s resignation. Only 48 hours earlier, he had agreed to serve in his government!
When Boris finally resigned, and Truss inevitably crashed and burned, Zahawi called for Johnson’s return to power – that is, only after support for his own leadership bid failed to materialise. Over the course of a month, Zahawi went from Boris loyalist to anti-Boris conspirator to Boris restorationist, and while people took wry enjoyment in his shamelessly serpentine manoeuvres at the time, it begs a question of loyalty now that he’s defected to Reform.
By contrast, Jenrick has been received more warmly by Reformers, although it’s hardly a match made in Heaven. Like Zahawi, he wasn’t just some Tory apparatchik. Jenrick won his Newark seat in a 2014 by-election at a time when UKIP was on-the-up and the Conservatives were under siege. Earlier in the year, UKIP beat the Tories to second place in the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election. Later in the year, it would gain seats in the Commons following by-election victories in Clacton and Rochester.
As such, Jenrick’s election to Parliament was about more than filling space on the green benches; it was explicitly about refuting the idea that the Conservatives needed to move rightward on immigration, EU membership, political correctness, etc. – taking the form of strategic ignorance than anything overtly ideological. People don’t really want less immigration, so you can afford to ignore it; just marginally improve their living standards and they’ll stop voting for populists. Sound familiar?
A triumph for full-fat Cameronism over UKIP-lite, Jenrick was hailed by the kind of progressive interlopers who now view him as the second coming of Hermann Göring. Thereafter, Jenrick was identified with the centrist wing of the party. What little he did say about immigration was vague but ultimately liberal, and that was pretty much of the end of things until a few years ago.
The official narrative around Jenrick’s conversion is that his time at the Home Office was so gruelling that it pushed him rightward. This is certainly plausible. Jenrick’s tenure was mostly defined by low-grade cost-cutting measures and monitoring the situation. His most hardline decision was arguably the removal of a Mickey Mouse mural in a migrant detention centre. Such a record just as much indicates a Home Office strangling more ambitious proposals as a minister being insufficiently opposed to migration, so it’s hardly a slam-dunk example of ideological inauthenticity.
Nevertheless, Jenrick’s conversion was impeccably well-timed and rather recent. Dropped as Housing Secretary, Jenrick was appointed as Minister for Immigration in 2022 by then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak because he wasn’t particularly right-wing; allegedly, Sunak intended Jenrick to act as a counterweight to then Home Secretary Suella Braverman… who has also defected to Reform!
Out of the Tory Trio that have defected this month, Braverman’s is perhaps the easiest and toughest to square. Her credentials are far stronger than Jenrick’s and much stronger than Zahawi’s. The European Research Group’s former chairman does seem to have genuine socially conservative convictions, and is something of a ‘Deepa Kaur‘-esque figure of both hatred and ridicule for progressives.
Many will inevitably point to her track record as Home Secretary – and specifically, her inability to get the migration numbers down and presiding over the Afghan cover-up – but this (much like Jenrick’s record as immigration minister) is a question of authenticity rather than efficacy. matters, and Braverman needs to be criticised for this before being given any portfolio of any kind, but is not the central focus here. The point being is that she can’t be faulted on rhetoric; a vice in other contexts but technically a virtue here.
Her undeniable “uselessness” as Home Secretary aside, and resolve most likely born from conviction, it’s believable that she feels at home in Reform. The fact she didn’t run in the 2024 Conservative leadership race suggests sincere alienation from her former party, and the fact that pretty much everyone saw this coming down the pipe, are surely worth something even to sceptics.
Critics will continue to use the fact these people were Conservative MPs against them – including the Conservative Party itself, it seems – but this isn’t really the issue. Danny Kruger was a Tory MP, and everyone sees him as a major asset to Reform, and rightfully so; even Dominic Cummings had nice things to say about him, and he scarcely says nice things about anyone.
Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless, winners of the by-elections in Clacton and Rochester, were Tory defectors. Much of UKIP’s presence in the European Parliament was comprised of former Conservative MEPs alienated by the party’s embrace of Europhilia, including Roger Helmer – former Conservative MEP for the East Midlands and Jenrick’s rival in the Newark by-election of 2014.
If not assets, other former Tories have proven inoffensive enough. Lee Anderson has long since shaken his association with his old party – indeed, he’s done it once before. Jake Berry was obscure enough to get away with defecting. Nadine Dorries – arguably the worst defection thus far, courtesy her contribution to Online Safety Act – is made tolerable only by the likelihood that she won’t have any real power.
The simple fact of the matter is that Reform was always bound to take some Tory flotsam on board. When your modus operandi for the next decade is to supplant and replace the Tories as the main right-leaning party in Britain, it’s pretty much a given.
Rather, the problem is the reliability of Reform’s converts. To have lived a life of sin is less problematic than never converting at all; this is true of religion and it is true of politics. Farage is headed for the belly of the beast; the antibodies of the regime are going to be working overtime to make his time in Number 10 as unfruitful and frustrating as possible. If the Blob is resistant to Keir Starmer, of all people, it’s sure to have an existential hatred of Mr Brexit. The next election is scheduled for 2029, and we’re already hearing murmurs from Whitehall about how to stop Reform from within.
Now more than ever, Farage needs true believers around him, and while Brexit Braverman’s defection is intuitive, I doubt he’ll be able to rely on “The Boy from Baghdad” when he inevitably comes under fire.
The jury’s still out on Bobby J.
As we’ve seen in the United States – especially during the first Trump administration, but increasingly during the second – the recycling of staffers, advisers, and appointees can destabilise and inhibit the leader from the next layer down. Given that Reform’s success verifiably hinges on Farage’s personal capital, meaning Reform’s success in Whitehall will hinge upon Farage’s personal ability to Do Things.
One might say this is true of all governments, not merely those controlled by populists, and while this is true, it’s especially true of one plausibly (not merely technically) campaigning on the expectation of real, fundamental change; change that, at times, may wholly necessary but still deeply unpopular. The failure to match voter expectations is politics as usual, but Reform is promising exactly the opposite. Failure to translate executive will into tangible results will not only be used as ammunition by rival parties, but by the establishment (from all parties and none) and reactionaries desperately seeking to retrench it.
Photo Credit.