Comment

Now more than ever, Farage must discern between converts and infiltrators

The recent defections of Nadhim Zahawi, Robert Jenrick, and Suella Braverman from the Tories to Reform have caused quite a stir – among both supporters and opponents – yet seemingly for the wrong reasons.

In theory, a political start-up winning the endorsement of a former Chancellor sounds like great news. It certainly looks good on paper. The support of a former high-ranking official potentially brings much-needed insider knowledge and some personal clout to the table. 

Unfortunately, this endorsement isn’t just good on paper – it’s only good on paper. Despite it being his defining credential, Nadhim Zahawi was Chancellor for barely two months before being shuffled away under Liz Truss – probably for the best, all things considered. 

Nothing of note was achieved during his brief internship at the Treasury. Zahawi’s tenure reminds us of a period of politics rather than any policy – specifically, the end of the last Conservative government; the unpopularity of which continues to contaminate the party’s standing with the public years later.

If Zahawi is known for anything of substance, it’s for being Vaccines minister; at best, some may recall him as a vaguely competent manager of the rollout, while others regard him as a sinister bio-authoritarian technocrat – most notably, the Reform voters who kept the party afloat during Lockdown, when it was jostling for third place with the Liberal Democrats. 

Of course, he wasn’t just any Tory MP. Zahawi was among the core Cameron-era intake. When his defection was announced, commentators were quick to note his socially liberal positions, from his support for immigration – including mass amnesty for illegals – to his past support for progressive mainstays like DEI and BLM. 

Moreover, his past attacks on Nigel Farage – such as comparing the Reform leader to Joseph Goebbels – and accusations of an unsuccessful bid for a Tory peerage a few months prior have all understandably created trouble for the supposed convert.

This all might sound a bit harsh. People do have Damascene conversions. However, Zahawi’s track record shows that authenticity is really not his strongest point. The day after his promotion to Chancellor under Boris Johnson – at the height of Partygate, no less – Zahawi publicly called for Johnson’s resignation. Only 48 hours earlier, he had agreed to serve in his government!

When Boris finally resigned, and Truss inevitably crashed and burned, Zahawi called for Johnson’s return to power – that is, only after support for his own leadership bid failed to materialise. Over the course of a month, Zahawi went from Boris loyalist to anti-Boris conspirator to Boris restorationist, and while people took wry enjoyment in his shamelessly serpentine manoeuvres at the time, it begs a question of loyalty now that he’s defected to Reform.

By contrast, Jenrick has been received more warmly by Reformers, although it’s hardly a match made in Heaven. Like Zahawi, he wasn’t just some Tory apparatchik. Jenrick won his Newark seat in a 2014 by-election at a time when UKIP was on-the-up and the Conservatives were under siege. Earlier in the year, UKIP beat the Tories to second place in the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election. Later in the year, it would gain seats in the Commons following by-election victories in Clacton and Rochester.

As such, Jenrick’s election to Parliament was about more than filling space on the green benches; it was explicitly about refuting the idea that the Conservatives needed to move rightward on immigration, EU membership, political correctness, etc. – taking the form of strategic ignorance than anything overtly ideological. People don’t really want less immigration, so you can afford to ignore it; just marginally improve their living standards and they’ll stop voting for populists. Sound familiar?

A triumph for full-fat Cameronism over UKIP-lite, Jenrick was hailed by the kind of progressive interlopers who now view him as the second coming of Hermann Göring. Thereafter, Jenrick was identified with the centrist wing of the party. What little he did say about immigration was vague but ultimately liberal, and that was pretty much of the end of things until a few years ago.

The official narrative around Jenrick’s conversion is that his time at the Home Office was so gruelling that it pushed him rightward. This is certainly plausible. Jenrick’s tenure was mostly defined by low-grade cost-cutting measures and monitoring the situation. His most hardline decision was arguably the removal of a Mickey Mouse mural in a migrant detention centre. Such a record just as much indicates a Home Office strangling more ambitious proposals as a minister being insufficiently opposed to migration, so it’s hardly a slam-dunk example of ideological inauthenticity.

Nevertheless, Jenrick’s conversion was impeccably well-timed and rather recent. Dropped as Housing Secretary, Jenrick was appointed as Minister for Immigration in 2022 by then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak because he wasn’t particularly right-wing; allegedly, Sunak intended Jenrick to act as a counterweight to then Home Secretary Suella Braverman… who has also defected to Reform!

Out of the Tory Trio that have defected this month, Braverman’s is perhaps the easiest and toughest to square. Her credentials are far stronger than Jenrick’s and much stronger than Zahawi’s. The European Research Group’s former chairman does seem to have genuine socially conservative convictions, and is something of a ‘Deepa Kaur‘-esque figure of both hatred and ridicule for progressives.

Many will inevitably point to her track record as Home Secretary – and specifically, her inability to get the migration numbers down and presiding over the Afghan cover-up – but this (much like Jenrick’s record as immigration minister) is a question of authenticity rather than efficacy. matters, and Braverman needs to be criticised for this before being given any portfolio of any kind, but is not the central focus here. The point being is that she can’t be faulted on rhetoric; a vice in other contexts but technically a virtue here.

Her undeniable “uselessness” as Home Secretary aside, and resolve most likely born from conviction, it’s believable that she feels at home in Reform. The fact she didn’t run in the 2024 Conservative leadership race suggests sincere alienation from her former party, and the fact that pretty much everyone saw this coming down the pipe, are surely worth something even to sceptics.

Critics will continue to use the fact these people were Conservative MPs against them – including the Conservative Party itself, it seems – but this isn’t really the issue. Danny Kruger was a Tory MP, and everyone sees him as a major asset to Reform, and rightfully so; even Dominic Cummings had nice things to say about him, and he scarcely says nice things about anyone. 

Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless, winners of the by-elections in Clacton and Rochester, were Tory defectors. Much of UKIP’s presence in the European Parliament was comprised of former Conservative MEPs alienated by the party’s embrace of Europhilia, including Roger Helmer – former Conservative MEP for the East Midlands and Jenrick’s rival in the Newark by-election of 2014. 

If not assets, other former Tories have proven inoffensive enough. Lee Anderson has long since shaken his association with his old party – indeed, he’s done it once before. Jake Berry was obscure enough to get away with defecting. Nadine Dorries – arguably the worst defection thus far, courtesy her contribution to Online Safety Act – is made tolerable only by the likelihood that she won’t have any real power. 

The simple fact of the matter is that Reform was always bound to take some Tory flotsam on board. When your modus operandi for the next decade is to supplant and replace the Tories as the main right-leaning party in Britain, it’s pretty much a given. 

Rather, the problem is the reliability of Reform’s converts. To have lived a life of sin is less problematic than never converting at all; this is true of religion and it is true of politics. Farage is headed for the belly of the beast; the antibodies of the regime are going to be working overtime to make his time in Number 10 as unfruitful and frustrating as possible. If the Blob is resistant to Keir Starmer, of all people, it’s sure to have an existential hatred of Mr Brexit. The next election is scheduled for 2029, and we’re already hearing murmurs from Whitehall about how to stop Reform from within.

Now more than ever, Farage needs true believers around him, and while Brexit Braverman’s defection is intuitive, I doubt he’ll be able to rely on “The Boy from Baghdad” when he inevitably comes under fire.

The jury’s still out on Bobby J.

As we’ve seen in the United States – especially during the first Trump administration, but increasingly during the second – the recycling of staffers, advisers, and appointees can destabilise and inhibit the leader from the next layer down. Given that Reform’s success verifiably hinges on Farage’s personal capital, meaning Reform’s success in Whitehall will hinge upon Farage’s personal ability to Do Things.

One might say this is true of all governments, not merely those controlled by populists, and while this is true, it’s especially true of one plausibly (not merely technically) campaigning on the expectation of real, fundamental change; change that, at times, may wholly necessary but still deeply unpopular. The failure to match voter expectations is politics as usual, but Reform is promising exactly the opposite. Failure to translate executive will into tangible results will not only be used as ammunition by rival parties, but by the establishment (from all parties and none) and reactionaries desperately seeking to retrench it.


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In Brussels, the Eurocrats are increasingly out of control

Earlier last month, it was announced that the European Commission wants to double the budget of the EU for North African countries to no less than 42 billion euros. It thereby also wants to extend the Erasmus programme for student exchanges to that region. One does not need to be a migration expert to understand that this will only exacerbate the current major migration challenges, and that public opinion may not be fully on board with this, to put it mildly. Things are really going from bad to worse with the European Commission, which is led by Ursula von der Leyen. Despite great unease with green policies and migration policies, and some minor adjustments, her EU Commission is trying to continue with business as usual.

In October, von der Leyen survived two votes in the European Parliament to topple her. Notable was how the French centre-right Les Républicains, which are part of the centrist European People’s Party (EPP), supported the motion of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally’s EP group to oust von der Leyen. Also, there is grumbling among the centre-left. German SPD MEP René Repasi even warned von der Leyen that she has six months to deliver on the promises she made to his centre-left group, or it could put forward its own censure motion.

Then, it would be wrong to expect the European Parliament to really show their teeth. One diplomat confided to Politico nobody needs to worry about an overly powerful European Parliament, stating: “I don’t believe in this new Parliament, sorry. (…) They can threaten, but when a leader picks up the phone, they always fall in line.” One example of that is how the socialist group recently went along with von der Leyen’s omnibus bill, a modest exercise in EU regulatory simplification, after Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez intervened. 

A Hungarian scandal? 

Developments within the European Commission may affect its stability more than whatever happens in the European Parliament. First, there has been Pfizergate, whereby the European Court of Justice ruled that the European Commission violated transparency rules by failing to grant access to text messages between Ursula von der Leyen and the CEO of pharma giant Pfizer.

Secondly, there are now also allegations that the Hungarian government would have deployed intelligence officers to Brussels to gather information on EU institutions and to recruit an EU official. According to a number of media, Hungarian intelligence officers disguised as diplomats would have attempted to infiltrate EU institutions during the period when the current Hungarian European Commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi, served as Hungary’s ambassador to the EU.

Várhelyi has reportedly told President Ursula von der Leyen he was “not aware” of the alleged spying activities. Her spokesperson told media afterwards that “the president is pleased to have sat down with the Commissioner on this issue and the working group will continue its work on the subject.” In other words: von der Leyen is absolutely not keen to escalate this, and also other European governments will prefer not to engage into a direct diplomatic clash, if everything would be proven. 

As I have been writing before, if it is serious about fighting cronyism, the EU should cut its EU transfers for all Member States, given how easy it is to otherwise accuse the EU of “double standards”. Stories about cronyism and executive control of the judiciary have been popping up all across other Central and Eastern European countries, like Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria. Obviously, similar problems have been evident in the old EU member states as well, not to mention Italy. In 2021, Professor Vince Musacchio, a renowned anti-corruption expert from the Rutgers Institute on Anti-Corruption Studies, has warned that between 2015 and 2020, the EU has allocated around €70bn to Italy in structural & investment funds. Half of these funds ended up in the hands of organised crime.”

Then to see EU Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi stepping down would perhaps not be the saddest of outcomes. He is responsible for health policy but has been telling MEPs that “new tobacco and nicotine products pose health risks comparable to traditional ones.” This is simply unscientific to the core and should disqualify him from this position. Channelling his inner nannycrat, Várhelyi has also been pushing for a taxation system on products high in sugar, fat, and salt to help finance public health during a meeting with the European Parliament’s health committee, thereby arguing some of those receipts should go to the EU budget. So much for the idea of “Orban’s man” standing up against Brussels. 

American pressure

While internal European Commission trouble or pressure from the European Parliament may not change much, there is still the matter of US President Donald Trump.

So far, he has already forced the EU to abandon its plans for a digital tax, while the US has also obtained concessions regarding the EU’s planned climate tariff, CBAM, prompting countries such as South Africa to demand equal treatment. The new tariff is likely to deal a severe blow to African economies. South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission estimates that CBAM would reduce African exports to the EU by 30-35% by 2030, representing a value of €1.7 to €2.1 billion.

Despite the trade agreement reached between the EU and the US this summer, Trump has threatened new tariffs on the EU in response to the €2.95 billion fine imposed on Google. He warned: “We cannot let this happen to brilliant and unprecedented American Ingenuity and, if it does, I will be forced to start a Section 301 proceeding to nullify the unfair penalties being charged to these Taxpaying American Companies.”

The Trump administration also continues to challenge the EU’s new digital rules – the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act – which it calls ‘Orwellian’. In doing so, it accuses the EU of censorship. Apparently, the US is even considering sanctions in the form of visa restrictions against EU officials in connection with the DSA.

Equally strong is the Trump administration’s opposition to the EU’s green regulations adopted during Von der Leyen’s first term, the era of the ‘green deal’. It has for example been objecting to the upcoming EU anti-deforestation directive, which was in fact already challenged by the Biden administration. These new EU rules ban the import of goods if producers fail to prove that no forests were felled in their production. In September, the European Commission proposed to delay the implementation of the directive a second time, until 2027 instead of 2026, blaming an IT system issue. Not long after, it once again changed the timing of the delay, adding confusion for everyone.

According to one member state source, the Commission’s concessions may be due to US pressure, and unrelated to the closure of the EU-Indonesia trade deal, as others have alleged. Trading partners like Indonesia and Malaysia are large exporters of palm oil and thereby heavily affected by the new bureaucratic burdens that EUDR would impose. Malaysia considers it unfair that its imports are classified as “standard risk”, as opposed to the US classification of “low risk”, given that deforestation there has improved significantly, with NGOs recognising a reduction of 13 per cent last year. Just as South Africa complaints about US privileges in the context of CBAM, also here, the new two-tier system for trading partners is under fire. In this way, Trump does not only affect EU regulation, but also the EU’s trade relationship with the rest of the world. 

Not only did the Trump administration manage to get a de facto opt-out from the EU’s bureaucratic new deforestation rules, it is pushing for more. With Qatar, the U.S. has been urged the European Union to scale back the EU’s corporate sustainability directive CSDDD – the EU tends to love Communist-sounding acronyms. Thereby, both have threatened that the rules risked disrupting liquefied natural gas trade with Europe.

Suicidal energy policies

Despite the ongoing developments, the EU Commission’s 2026 work programme for 2026 appears to offer “business as usual”, without major changes to EU policy, apart from a “simplification” exercise that leaves major EU measure that burden competitiveness, like its ETS climate taxation, most “green deal” regulations, the AI Act or GDPR untouched. The centre-right EPP is likely to get some concessions on the new 2040 climate target the EU Commission has been pushing forward, but the question in the first place is whether there should be yet another climate target at all. 

Simplification is good, but it is not enough. The EU’s climate taxation scheme ETS should be abolished, so to drastically cut the price of energy for European industry. At the moment, this tax is almost twice as high as the total US natural gas price, which in itself is only about one fifth of the natural gas price in Europe. Major chemical company INEOS is now advocating scrapping carbon taxation, but it remains a political taboo, despite the fact that the US, which does not have such a tax system, has managed to reduce CO2 emissions per capita relatively more than the EU since 2005.

The situation is urgent. Europe’s chemical industry, which is the bedrock of all other industry, has been scrapping lots of investment and jobs this year. 

On the contrary, the European Commission is however pushing hard to simply continue with its plans to expand the EU’s ETS climate tax. This “ETS2” scheme is estimated to cost families up to 650 euros extra per year in terms of extra costs for fuel and heating. The institution seems completely tone-deaf to reality. 


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Reform will lead us to victory

Reform UK, lead by Nigel Farage, is a once in a century opportunity to destabilise the status quo and displace the political establishment in Great Britain. A unique window of time has opened up in which the British people are discontent enough to reject both the Labour party and the Conservative party, throwing their votes behind what currently amounts to a populist vessel without any record of governance.

A recent poll by Ipsos shows Reform UK with 34 percent, 9 points ahead of Labour, continuing its rapid transformation from an irrelevant third party enclave for disgruntled Tories into a serious electoral force; one threatening to be responsible for the first election since 1910 in which a party other than Labour or the Conservatives won the most seats. Whatever your assessment of Nigel Farage’s character, or Zia Yusuf’s intentions, or how sound Reform UK’s policy proposals are, or even just the party’s tactics and rhetoric – I think it’s important to remember both the existential threat this country faces and how important it is for us to gain political power. That is ultimately all that matters – power. If we aren’t working towards winning councillors (thankfully, Reform is), and if we aren’t working towards winning seats in the House of Commons (thankfully, Reform is), then we are wasting our time.

Many people on the right of politics seem to be stricken with reservations when it comes to supporting Reform UK. A caveat with that is when I say “many people on the right of politics” I specifically mean the most politically engaged, most active online group of people on the right. The general logic concludes that Reform is:

  1. Appealing too much to old people.
  2. Is ideologically incoherent.
  3. Has become soft on its core issues (immigration, identity, etc.).

On point one, they have astutely assessed that the Labour party is weakest from its left flank. As such, coming out against the cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance and in favour of scrapping the Two-Child Benefit Cap is a good way of exploiting fragmentation within Labour’s electoral coalition. On point two, Reform has realised that the primary barrier to their electoral success is the degree to which people see Reform as being associated with the Conservative party (by history, by figures within the party, but most importantly by policy and rhetoric). This means that for the next 4 years they will be selling themselves as a fresh, new third party with ideas detached from the old constraints of red-blue, left-right partisan lines.

Regardless of your assessment of how committed they would be on delivering this; they are fundamentally a populist party. If you want Reform to sound like Margaret Thatcher on taxes, welfare and state intervention in the economy you will never be satisfied with them. Finally, on point three, by the nature of us living in a democracy, Reform inevitably has to win votes from the broad, apolitical masses in order to gain a majority in parliament. If that means Reform politicians have to sound like soft, liberal centrists in order to win votes from women aged 30-50 then sobeit.

A predictable wedge emerges from the fact that Nigel Farage needs to appeal to the country but Robert Jenrick needs to appeal to his base – in order for either of them to achieve their current goals. Plenty of figures in politics, predominantly Conservative MPs , currently have the luxury to be able to throw around as much rhetorical red meat as possible because the stakes are so low and they are nowhere near power. Farage, and Reform UK, have no such luxury. They have the weight of a desperate, panicked people on their shoulders and a country that is putting unearned hope into their project.

By Reform’s luck, the Conservative party is playing perfectly into their hands. A Midnightian miracle is unfolding, whereby Nigel Farage and Reform UK are becoming the sensible right wing party with broad appeal across the country and the Conservatives are becoming the fringe, impotent party obsessed with a handful of issues and unable to step outside of pandering to a noisy, narrow clique online.

The two parties are switching places, and yet Reform continues to position itself to the left of the Labour party. In a strange twist of fate, irrespective of the genealogy of the viewpoints of Reform’s officials or its membership, it will actually end up being the Labour party that replaces the Conservative party. What room is there remaining for the Conservative party if Labour are the fiscally responsible, steady-handed, sensible experienced party pleading with the electorate to continue on with the status quo and Reform are the party promoting a radical, progressive populism in opposition to that? Pictured below is the current state of British politics, the lines of attack each major party is making and their direction of travel. On present trends, by 2029 Reform will be the “left wing” option and Labour will be the “right wing” option in our two-party system. Do these terms really mean anything anymore?

I have my own reservations with Reform – I would like a much more radical economic policy from them. I would like to see a party that really lent into nationalist, or even just Corbynite, arguments on banks, big businesses, free trade and the overfinancialisation of the economy. I would like to hear “nationalisation” and “reindustrialisation” a lot more. I would like to hear that Nigel wants to continue fighting “multinationals and the big merchant banks.” I would like Reform to promote an isolationist foreign policy position in defence of Britain’s national interest, rather than being content with the £12.8 billion spent on the Ukraine War and our continued involvement in that proxy war on behalf of American imperialists. Given the state of our public services, infrastructure and just about every facet of British society – I don’t think Reform should be tacitly in favour of 5 percent of GDP, an extra £80 billion, being put into military spending. Nor do I think we should be getting further involved in Middle-Eastern conflicts, something which we haven’t gained from since the Sykes-Picot Agreement. But that’s just me!

Reform UK does not get enough credit for being as broad a tent as it is. It’s open for internal dissent on a whole number of issues. It more closely resembles a National Government in waiting than it does a singular political party. With the help of brilliant figures like Zia Yusuf in prominence, Reform UK is primed for a kind of internal mass line policy pragmatism. I continue to support them irrespective of disagreements because that is the nature of the operation of a political party – you subordinate yourself as an individual to the collective will in order to achieve results. Perhaps right wing people today struggle with this premise because they have never understood the necessity of trade unions, or perhaps because they are too committed to their personal “freedom of speech”.

Primarily, my support for Reform UK is derived from my personal loyalty to, and trust in, Nigel Farage. Secondarily, it is derived from two assumptions on what would occur should Reform win a majority and Nigel Farage be made Prime Minister.

The first assumption is that in such a scenario, half of the seats in the House of Commons predominantly will have been granted to fresh faces and strangers to Westminster. That in and of itself would be an astonishing political event the likes of which this country has never seen before. I’m not really sure the current political and journalist elite can weather a moment that destabilising. All grip on the Overton window and news cycle would be lost and a whole new batch of political advisors, think tanks and journalists would gain patronage overnight. The old regime and its comfortable net of nepotism that is currently maintaining everyone’s position either disintegrates or is seriously diminished in that scenario –before any legislation has been passed.

The second assumption is that, rather than calling for another referendum on electoral reform, they would instead in 2029 run on Proportional Representation and implement it once in power. This would break up our ossified two-party system and put us more in line with the fluid, active democracies of continental Europe. It would mean concern over pressing issues such as demographic change due to mass immigration could never be sidelined again, with all views in the country granted the political representation they deserve.

For those reasons and more, I back Reform UK. It is a calculation, but it’s not as cynical as it used to be. Put simply, my gut tells me to be optimistic about the future of the country and to put my support behind the only party capable of damaging the two parties that have so thoroughly wrecked our beautiful country. We can still save it, we can still restore it, we can still give it a new era to be proud of – but Britain will never have that opportunity unless you put your support and trust in those best placed to gain power.


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Debating Facades

Despite tensions within British society continuing to increase, the government is again demanding us to question our biases and challenge our inherited beliefs. From the reaction to Netflix’s Adolescence, to renewed criticisms of what is taught in schools, the British people are told to keep the spotlight firmly fixed on themselves. 

Adolescence, a fictional drama that explores toxic masculinity and the equally fictional version of Britain given to us is one of imposition and oppression. The former has sparked criticisms of “masculinity” as well as explanations of the “nature” of masculinity and defences of what masculinity “should” be. The “Britain” that is regularly pondered in wider discussion is the “awful” Empire, the failure of integration, and an intractable wealth distribution—all symptomatic of its core “values” or lack thereof.

On closer expression the “masculinity” in Adolescence and elsewhere in British life is simply that which is. There is no polar relationship between it and something we’d identify as “femininity”, there is only what is and what isn’t. What is, is hierarchical, oppressive and wrong and what isn’t is what is right, the “other” and more progressive. There are no spiritual differences between the two, only materialistic. Neither is an expression of a larger vision, both are accumulations of the existence of things, one is good, and one is bad; another problem to be managed.

Something like the bloated bureaucracy, and the obsession with the minutiae of our lives that underpins it, could be understood as a feminisation, but it is not inherently feminine. What matters are not the realities themselves, but those who work to propagate them. Although these people likely would not see themselves as revolutionaries, they are. Their ideology is the direction of the prevailing wind, and their plan is to further drive change. Although they have a vague set of views and something approaching an opinion on right and wrong, fundamentally they want change for the sake of change, exempting their unchanging belief in this supposed philosophy. They exist to corrode. 

For example, the reality of contemporary Britain, rather than the fictitious version we are presented with, is far better understood by what it isn’t than what it is. It isn’t an empire, it’s not the home of a people, it hasn’t a culture, it’s not a manufacturer, it’s not a peer of the major plays, it’s an embarrassment, it’s failure, it’s an awkwardness, it’s shame. 

British history is not taught in schools, instead a few events from our past are explained in isolation to children. The same is for all the humanities, and the sciences are so streamlined that you’re already a specialist by the time you’ve left university. Everything is mentioned as incidental and presented as a part of a fixed data set. Some of it we reconstitute in exams, some use to explain the “values” we hold, some to hurry our “commitments”, all entirely utilitarian in existence and use; none are descriptive of a people or place. Everything is arbitrary unless it is pre-determined to be “good” or “bad”, there is no picture of this country to refer to, let alone an essence. 

Almost all debates about social “wrongness” in Britain are confections. There is no culture to disagree with, there is nothing organic or visceral. We need to stop creating facades for people to deride.

We need to build a new Britain.


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Calling the Orange Man’s Greenland bluff

Trump’s tariff threats were a big mistake. Everybody agrees, it was the biggest, never a bigger mistake, they looked at that whole thing and went “Wow what a big mistake, we’ve never seen a mistake that big. Bigly. Yuge!” OK, enough of that.

It was a mistake for a lot of reasons. Sure, there’s the stock prices, exchange rates, diplomatic credibility, etc. etc. etc. The most interesting mistake is something else.

This is the sequence of events: Trump got up one morning, threated a trade war with the whole world, the markets blew up, and the uncertainty created conditions where he was forced to fold only a few hours later.

The only explanation I can come up with is that Trump massively overestimated US power.

The result of all this is that Trump allowed everyone to get a much better idea of how much power America really has. Less than expected. Much less.

The threat of tariffs wasn’t the assertion of toughness Trump probably thought it would be. It just revealed how much America would suffer by imposing those tariffs. Never mind China. Trump threatened the EU with tariffs. The EU came back saying it would reciprocate. And then Trump lost. To the French. The French. Trump lost to the French. Oh, the terrible shame.

If they’re not doing this already, it would be a very good idea for the British right to be distancing themselves from anything Trumpian. Perhaps even from America as a whole.

You know the tariff stuff is serious because it wasn’t totally forgotten after a few days, like so many other things which come and go in the news. We’re getting to Greenland, don’t worry.

Anyway, to be clear, America is not weak. But how strong is it? Trump’s biggest mistake in this whole tariff bungle is to make much clearer the shape and limits of American power. The better idea you have of something, the easier it is to deal with it. The best deals. Trump opened the door to this in a number of ways. Tariffs, defence spending, political criticisms, low-key threatening invasions. How about the whole idea of “America First” in the first place? You can agree or disagree about the validity of any of this but the point is that Trump 1) is rhetorically and materially pulling away from allies, 2) seems to want it, 3) is giving the excuse for separation, and 4) is presenting open opportunities for a new independence from America.

How about a test? How about a little harmless fun? How about Greenland? What was all that Greenland business with Trump? Want to find out?

With Greenland there’s a way to very easily put Trump on the back foot, suss him out, if you want to, to embarrass him. Tariffs were a flop. He’ll be looking for a distraction or some flashy way to move on. Scoop him before he can do it.

Put in a bid.

Someone, anyone. You don’t have to follow through. In finance you’d call it “putting it into play”. Offer to buy it too. You don’t expect the bid to be taken up. You do it because you want something else that bidding can get you e.g. putting pressure on someone, getting noticed, getting offered something else.

What price did Trump offer Denmark for Greenland? It’s all very vague. “We’ll pay you more than Denmark does”, according to one official. That’d be at least an annual payment of $600m. It’d be reasonable to assume at least a one-off payment to Denmark too. A benchmark is the $100m Truman offered for Greenland in 1946. Adjusted for inflation that’s about $1.6bn. Sounds cheap to me.

Does Trump give a per capita similar amount to his own citizens every year? No? America first? Hm.

Besides, Trump, are you going to be outdone by Truman? He failed to get a deal. Don’t you want a deal? I bet you can get a deal. I bet you can even beat everyone else to get that deal, no matter how high they push it. This totally isn’t a tar baby.

Greenland is attractive real estate for anyone. Anyone else might want it for the same reasons. Geopolitical positioning, natural resources, territorial expansion and pride, access to the Arctic, defence.

Consider this quote from Trump on Greenland: “So, I think we’ll go as far as we have to go. We need Greenland and the world needs us to have Greenland, including Denmark.” Set aside the interpretation of it as an invasion threat. Silly. Look at it instead as him saying America will pay any price. Isn’t that any interesting haggling tactic? The price just got ten feet higher!

Who’s going to call Trump’s bluff on this? Any of the Arctic countries, Canada, Russia, Norway? China? The countries of the Joint Expeditionary Force? The EU? What other joint bids could we see?

Whatever Trump bid, you bid 10% more. You don’t even have to know the number. Just post it on Twitter – “Hey, Denmark, whatever Trump offered you, we offer you 10% more”.

Prime Minister Carney, you’re an ex-banker. You know what this game is. Put Greenland into play. And don’t you want to push Trump’s buttons? You’ve just won a general election, now would be the time to have a go. What’s he going to do? Actually invade? No. That’d be way too naked.

What is Putin’s bid? What’s Xi’s? Trump effectively forced China to cash out of the Panama Canal. They’d got some spare capital. Go on Norway, have a go. People forget how much money their Sovereign Wealth Fund has. Keep it in the Scandi family?

Prime Minister Starmer. Go on. Be an international leader. Have a go with the JEF. In fact, Denmark is already a member. Why not bulk up Greenland with a great big JEF project? Keep Denmark on side while bolstering an international alliance whose members are unambiguously already friendly to America? What could Trump possibly say? I’m sorry, Mr President, but Greenland is vital to JEF strategic interests too. And Greenland is already the rightful territory of a JEF member, your ally, by the way. Whatever price you had in mind, go higher?

Maybe that wouldn’t be such a bad result. Europe starts taking its defence more seriously and beef itself up. Trump’s face-saving exit is that this is what he wanted all along, for Europe to pay its own way.

What’s the game here? One way or another, will he put up (at a humiliatingly high price) or shut up (just humiliating)?

Wouldn’t it be interesting to find out?


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How to Save Journalism

Since Elon Musk’s purchase of X, Anglophonic media has been under increased pressure to reform. His self-proclaimed empowerment of “Citizen Journalism” is becoming difficult for the mainstream to ignore. Through algorithmic changes that suppress the liberal voices that have dominated for so long, and boost accounts loosely but best described as “anti-woke”, the discourse of the “Global Townhall” is changing. Musk’s commitment to efficiency privileges interactions over anything else, meaning high impact, low complexity is the currency of the day. 

For the mainstream, this is challenging: audiences are organisms, they are found, cultivated and pruned by publications; the less they are a known quantity the harder it is to write for them. Most of us possess multiple social medias meaning multiple algorithms, there are more “content” outlets than ever before, and a bottomless pit of data being bought and sold. What were once “audiences” are now millions of individuals, simultaneously a part of as many groups, being groomed into consumers from as many directions. In short, much of what is published in the mainstream is based on presuppositions, both major and minor, that no longer exist. 

To remedy this discrepancy, the journalistic “plays” commonly used by the British commentariat must be abandoned. Providing interesting twists on pre-existing answers (I’m paraphrasing the FT’s Janan Ganesh) is not good enough when the questions being asked are not set. The risible construction of “identify a specific issue, universalise it, and then deem it intractable, unanswerable and requiring vague consideration” must go because as the post-war consensus collapses almost everything is up for debate. The practice of articulating a specific consequence of a certain dynamic, e.g. mass immigration, while not admitting the dynamic exists, and presenting the consequence as a driver of outcomes rather than what it is—that is, a consequence—must go as it prevents real discussion. The world is less constrained than it has been for a long time, the long twentieth century is over, globalisation is in retreat and liberalism is on the rocks. Journalists need not twist the same lines of argument to keep things interesting, they must find new facts. 

To see what makes an impact we must look to X. 

The story of Springfield, Ohio, which in early September 2024 was struck by an influx of Haitians – most likely with TPS (Temporary Protected Status) – said by inhabitants to be eating local animals, serves as an example. To this day if you google it, you will find a page of articles condescendingly informing you it didn’t happen, apart from the Telegraph. Except it did happen (albeit with clarifications), the story was broken on X (albeit amid a flurry of less reliable, engagement-farming posts), and it was an important factor in swinging the vote for Trump; it provided him with an opportunity to clarify and articulate his stance on immigration. It turned the ‘spirit’ of 2016 into policy.

The issue of the Mirpuri rape gangs re-entering the discourse at the beginning of the year is another. Few knew the full extent of the ongoing horror because (for the most part) journalists have historically omitted the specifics of the atrocity. However, during the weeks that Elon Musk had an excerpt of one of the court transcripts pinned to his X profile, people were very aware of the depravity that had occurred. Brits’ revulsion at ourselves combined with pressure from America forced us to come to terms what the rape gangs are: our Chernobyl—the rot at the heart of Britain—and total inditement of the post-war project. We were forced to see ourselves as others see us.

The micro-trends of the Westminster sphere are another. The fissuring of Reform, a party that consistently polls as highly as Labour, took place on X and was provoked by Rupert Lowe’s popularity and success on it. The Trump regime’s distancing themselves from Farage was first alluded to on X and can only really be understood through X as that’s where each does most of its talking. Most importantly, the new and controversial topics entering the media-sphere—the Motability scandal, the two-tier justice system, the demography of who receives state resources, and the emergence of MPs who campaign and win solely on their co-ethnics’ support—are all drawn from a pre-existing discourse on X. 

The online and offline worlds are merging. This is a fact. What will life look like as events online further impinge offline, how will journalists react? 

When confronted by Trump’s tariffs, a policy thought by many to be consigned to the past, journalists were forced to respond, but here in Britain new visions for our country are only just emerging. Labour have no reason for being in government, the Tory party doesn’t exist apart from Robert Jenrick, and Reform offers little more than anti-woke jibes—the norm has run out of road.

But on X there is a Dissident Right that has answers to the questions of the day and cares as much for the last millennia of British history as it does for the next. It looks to similar movements throughout Europe, all represented on X, who share the same concerns and similarly themed solutions. In fact, the true importance of X is its tabling of an Anglophonic consciousness, something that will come to dominate this century. 

All this cannot come too soon as the cratering of the mainstream’s ability to tell us what is happening in the world will only deepen. The termination of USAID was the destruction of a global patronage network that funded news outlets, journalists, NGOs, charities and more. Without it the liberal worldview we are so familiar with will be pushed significantly less. Redundancies have occurred from Politico to aid workers in Africa, liberal mouthpieces are no more. What’s now clear is just how much of the mainstream “discourse” is a confection, created by a small number of highly motivated people. Naturally this will only increase the public’s distrust of the media, but it also clears the ground for new voices to enter the fray, promising a further de-privileging of what manages to hang on. 

If journalists are to benefit from what their industry is experiencing, they must see it as a selection event. They must go out and find issues to investigate and investigate them. They must open their eyes to the currents of the world we live in and explore it, broadening their understanding of what is. Finally, they must stop repeating the platitudes of yesteryear. There is a huge opportunity for change, for journalists to ride out on their own and make a real impact on the world. Let’s hope they do.


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The Plastic University Bubble

I remember visiting a neighbour’s house as a child, and she had bought us an intriguing toy. ‘Super Elastic Bubble Plastic’ was its name. It was a viscous plastic material that came in a tube, along with a straw, which was used to blow it into a bubble shape (much like chewing gum). You could then throw it around and use it as a playball, and the strengthen it had through its artificiality meant it would not pop.

Our university system is much like this toy, in that it is an artificial bubble, sustained only by the will of the state managerial elite, in whose childlike hands it rests. The fundamental fact of the modern university is that it has been transformed from an institution oriented to promote the pursuit of knowledge, into a factory designed to churn out a constant supply of future managerial candidates. Such a change was an intentional act of our political class, beginning with John Major and finishing completion under Tony Blair’s New Labour.

In a debate in the House of Commons in 1983, William Waldegrave, a junior minister in Mrs Thatcher’s government told the House that “Young home entrants to university were 7.5 per cent. of the 18-year-old age group from 1978 to 1980, 7.2 per cent. in 1981 and 6.9 per cent,” and in response to criticism of university budget cuts he explained that this was to “protect the research base.” Restricting university attendance – to dare I say, an ‘elite’ few – strengthened the purpose of the university as a place of high quality research.

In contrast, John Major’s government reformed higher education with the Further and Higher Education Act 1992 leading to the proliferation in the number of universities, with 33 polytechnic colleges becoming universities and a further 45 universities being created since the Act was passed. The number of 18-year olds entering university thus skyrocketed, and Tony Blair laid out his plans to take this further, telling the Labour Party Conference in 1999 that “Today I set a target of 50% of young adults going into higher education in the next century.”

Although this is framed as an egalitarian policy intended to remove class and socioeconomic backgrounds to university attendance, such notions can be swiftly dismissed. As James Burnham, in his prescient The Managerial Revolution, tells us:

“The process of the extension of governmental ownership and control nevertheless means a continuous increase of managerial dominance in the economy as a whole. A clear witness to the truth of this last observation is provided by the growth in the number of “bright young men,” of trained and educated and ambitious youth, who set out for careers in the government, not as politicians in the old sense, but as managers in the various agencies and bureaus in all the myriad fields where they now operate.”

No clearer sign of this is needed than the fact that Leeds Beckett University, that bastion of quality British higher education, advises that “bachelor’s degrees in subjects such as economics, business studies or English would offer entry into generic civil servant roles.” Furthermore, a look at the government’s Civil Service Fast Track scheme shows that applicants must have only ‘achieved’ a 2:2 to apply for 11 out of the 17 scheme pathways. A 2:2 is typically a grade of 50-59%. Mediocrity is now a requirement for entry into the managerial caste. Never mind trying to achieve a first class degree and achieve something with your life; come and join the managers in Whitehall, or one of the hundreds of government quangos, is the message of Mr Blair et al.

The economics of the university system do not make sense. In the words of Shimeon Lee of the Taxpayer’s Alliance:

“…unlike home students, overseas fees are not capped. This allows universities to charge a price that actually reflects the cost of delivering degrees, including the cost of subsidising home students. For example, international students studying a PPE (Philosophy, Politics and Economics) degree at Oxford will pay £41,130 a year. In contrast, home students will pay only £9,250 – the maximum universities have been allowed to charge since 2017.”

International students, paying tens of thousands to study in the UK, are economic tools designed to subsidise the cost for British entrants. Therefore, are simply a policy instrument used to enable as many 18-year-old Brits to go to university as possible.

Let us reflect on what this means. The managerial class, understanding that it needs a supply of fresh-faced youth to rise through its ranks with meaningless degrees in order to sustain itself, has over the past three decades opened the floodgates to millions of foreign students for no other reason than to strengthen its existence through numbers.

For those of us dissatisfied with the cultural and moral vacuum that is modern Britain, the solution is obvious. Repeal the 1992 Act, revert every post-92 university back to a polytechnic college, and abolish international student visas. Maybe then the youth of today will do something useful, rather than studying English (which we all already speak, anyway) or gender studies only to go on and work for Ofcom or Defra.

There are signs that we are heading in the right direction. Recently, Cardiff University announced that 400 academic jobs (7%) will likely be cut because of economic pressures. Revealingly, the university’s vice chancellor Wendy Larner explained this as a result of “the context of declining international student applications and increasing cost pressures, and the need to adapt to survive.” At least she was honest.

Our universities, and schools, now operate only as a training ground for future managers. Rather than keeping it artificially inflated, like a plastic child’s toy, let the bubble pop. Let the children aspire to work in business, learn a trade, or do something else that will actually benefit society.


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What we must take from Marx

Britain is a nation that enjoys making light of its peculiarities and eccentricities. We enjoy having a laugh over a slightly self deprecating and scathing analysis of the fine-points of our society. We are keenly aware of the little things that set us apart – most famously the class system.

Unblemished by the tumults of the continent, we never saw fit to put whole socio-economic stratas to death, and such, on this isle has evolved a range of economic classes; that at times can seem whole cultures within themselves. The topic of a good Harry Enfield sketch, the plethora of verbal inflections in dialect, or what one tends to do on a Sunday, to general mannerism and pattern of speech – there is much that can set one into working, middle, or upper class. We view class not through a reasoned analysis, nor through a simple review of how much money is in one’s wallet – in fact, these tend to be quite secondary thoughts when judging someone’s place in the hierarchy.

Class is understood through a range of social signifiers, all of which have their root in one’s upbringing, which have their root in the upbringing of one’s father, and his father, and his father, and so on.

No matter how much money you win for your coffers, no matter how noble and high your method of work is, no matter how much you may put on a rendition of received pronunciation – you cannot really change your class. You may own a country estate, go shooting pheasants with the lads on Sunday, you may call your son Tarquin, but if your Dad came from a pit village, and passed down the speech, mannerism, and sentiments of said pit village to you – you’ll never leave the place. You may be able to win your son a jaunt up the social ladder, Joseph Chamberlain’s little known son called Neville transcended his father’s position in the middle class by growing up far away from his Dad at Eton, managing something of a different upbringing thereby.

The ultimate result of this strange institution is an utterly cartoonish understanding of class. It is entirely possible in this view of things, that a well-born feckless son from a manor in the home counties could spend his days shepherding pit-ponies around mineshafts in South Wales, and still outrank Gwyn Jones who was born in the pit village just adjacent, and made enough money to buy that very country estate mentioned.

Do not suppose that I write against such cartoons, they are quite wonderful, and I wish not for some Jacobin iconoclasm to mandate state-approved classes based upon occupation. These things make brilliant Harry Enfield sketches, however, when we seek to understand British society, and thereby create a successful right-wing movement, we have no time for the twee cartoons of such a sketch. We can not begin to engage in a successful right-wing, or nationalist political program without a firm understanding of how social classes interact in this country, every political movement must find itself between a class antagonism, lest it fail. Hence, we must begin to integrate Marx’s view of class into our thinking. Marx, despite standing in near complete contradiction to us, is the only thinker from which we can concretely define and analyse the real and tangible class divisions within the British people, beyond the thesis of a sketch.

Marxist class analysis centres around how one relates to the means of production. Totally ignoring someone’s salary or mannerisms – Marx defines class purely through the manner in which one works. We all know of the two main classes of industrial capitalism he expounds upon – the proletarian, and the bourgeois. The bourgeois class owns means of production (in Marx’s time this could be a cotton mill or a steelworks) he holds this capital, and purchases wage labour in order to produce goods with it. The Proletarian class are the folk from whom wage labour is purchased, not owning any means of production themselves, the working class sell their labour-power in order to make a living.

Furthermore, Marx introduces the petit-bourgeois class. Marxists (who cannot for the life of them agree on anything) disagree on what exactly this class is, and whom makes up its ranks. Simply, it could be said, the petit-bourgeois class may own alternative forms of capital (such as a small shop) but are unlikely to purchase labour power in the working of this capital, and wherein he does, he likely works side by side with the proletarians he pays.

Now, Marx does not ramble on like this all day, and he eventually gets to the point: antagonism. The ultimate purpose of delving into these social relations is getting to grips with the separate desires and interests each class works toward. To put it simply, the proletarian seeks to labour as little as possible for the greatest wage. The bourgeois, inversely, wishes for the proletarian to labour as much for the smallest possible wage.

In this, we find Marx’s most valuable lesson. In taking up his understanding of class, we need not blanketly throw his particular analysis of the Victorian urban sprawl onto our day, we need not even use the word bourgeois and such – in fact, the economic relations of our day can be said to have deviated so much from Marx’s day that such terms are useless. We must centre in on the antagonism between the classes, while also putting key caveats on our understanding of it.

If one is to ignore this doctrine of antagonism, then one is to ignore nearly all of British political history. Is not the rift that has dominated our nation since even before the Civil War that of Whig and Tory? One cannot separate these two groups from their diametric class antagonism. The Tory of the country, who profits from agriculture, who finds himself well off in the ancient landed hierarchies. The Whig who profits from the city, who thrives in more modern and capitalistic relations of the mill and steelwork. There are few debates of British political history that can be fully understood without getting to grips with this specific sociological battle. We cannot look to Peel’s full thrust support for the abolition of the corn laws, and championing of free trade thereby, without understanding that the Whig sought out this reform in order to ensure the flow of cheap grain into urban centres, and the mouths of their proletarians, at the expense of the Tory landowner and his tenant. Without this economic antagonism, there is no movement to abolish the corn laws.

Now, this is not to say that all hitherto history is that of class struggle, we should not assume that Peel was consciously plotting to pull the rug under the Tory landowner – no one thinks this way, in fact, class antagonism while informing these political disputes can sometimes enter the sub-conscious. We can understand this doctrine without becoming totally affixed to it.

Principally, we must maintain that class is not the prime fraternity of man. There is no international working class or the like, and such is a fanciful idea. Ultimately, one’s nation and ethnicity trump their class identity. Leftists like to imagine that they have more in common with a working class Chinaman than a billionaire of their ethnic kin, but while Richard Branson may have vastly different economic interests; you can share a conversation in your mutually native language, you celebrate the same festivities every year, you probably share the same cultural references and tidbits. Man is much more than his economic interests, and his identity goes much beyond what he’d like to be paid at work – such a totalising view of class ignores the depth that makes up men’s lives.

Nonetheless, we can simultaneously hold that ethnos is the prime fraternity of man, while recognising the inherent divisions within such a thing. Without a comprehension of these differences, we will remain ignorant as to how to effectively mobilise our people in a political movement. Blindly assuming that if we put forward a political program that broadly seeks to better the condition of the native Briton, that such will rally all sections of our people will lead us to ruin.

While it is true that in ‘diverse’ societies, democracy simply becomes an ethnic headcount (see South Africa) such diversity is concentrated in certain areas of our country. Areas such as Bradford fit this model much more, wherein the diametric antagonism between the native and immigrant groups naturally trumps the bounds of class, however in other areas of the nation this is not such. (Ironically, it is class antagonism that brought this into being. Former industrial areas are highly saturated with immigrant groups due to the importation of cheap labour into mills and cotton works, for example.) Thereby, we must understand the class antagonisms we can ride, and the classes with whom we have appeal.

To illustrate this, let us think to the average voter in the 1983 general election, the man who voted for Thatcher, and the man who voted for Foot. The man who voted for Thatcher, 38 years on, has likely benefited from the deindustrialisation of the country, much more attuned to a neoliberal regime of international finance and services. He is likely insulated from the demographic issues of the nation, perhaps he will scoff at some anti-social behaviour on the tube, but he is not bound by public transport. Let us think now to the man who voted for Foot, he has seen the industries his family worked in for generations crumble before his eyes, and the economic impetus of his town dry up. Equally, he has seen an unprecedented swamping of its demographic character in mere decades. He has lost his home, and his work at the behest of short sighted, shock doctrinaire neoliberalism.

Who is more likely, do you think, to support a nationalist cause? We all know that the working class tend to be more right-wing in our day, but if we do not understand the antagonism (being in this case, deindustrialisation) that this tendency has its roots in, then we shall fail to harness this support. Once we comprehend this, we will understand that nationalism has no future among the jungles of the free market, it must entail economic nationalism, and an active role of the state in economic affairs in order to steer the economy toward the national interest.

Without being at the parapet of class antagonism, that fuels all successful political movements, we march aimlessly into bogs and marshes. We must understand that nationalism has to be a movement in the interests of the disenfranchised native working class, that acts in the interests of that class. Without this, we are but ideologues barking into the wind.


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Private property and the environment: competing or reconcilable objectives?

When it comes to the question of the environment and what to do about it, there are a number of assumptions—the outcome of which does, for the most part, map nicely—with respect to who will be saying what about it. For example, that a Leftist is more inclined to refer to themselves as an ‘environmentalist’, coupling their ideological convictions of social progressivism with concern for ecological damage, is, for the most part, true. Equally, that a right-winger is less likely to refer to themselves as an ‘environmentalist’, is also, for the most part, true. I suspect that the inclination of the latter is more out of reaction to the prevailing Leftist narratives around environmental protection, rather than a genuine indifference or lack of concern around the matter considered in itself. Certainly, with respect to myself, as I refer to myself as both a Right-libertarian (of the more ‘reactionary’, as it’s often called, conservative inclination) and an ‘environmentalist’, I seek to present the case in favour of private property and environmental protection as being reconcilable, not hostile or competing, objectives. This I aim to do without too much of a foray into the dense political-philosophical and economic-statistical thicket, where one can get lost rather easily and squarely miss the point.

As a matter of first principles, it almost goes without saying that the Right-libertarian stance is one which emphasises the importance of private property, and therefore of property rights by default, in all human affairs. It is a case of ontological significance for the human being to be able to determine the boundaries and limits, the inclusion and the exclusion, the ‘mine’ and ‘thine’ before one is able to situate themselves appropriately in dealing with the community. In other words, a distinction between what is private, and therefore one’s own, and what is not, is antecedent to one’s proper place in wider society. This is not simply a matter of distinguishing between ‘personal’ and ‘private’ either—a case of semantic hairsplitting if ever there was one—but is a statement of profound significance. That which is privately owned implies not only the antecedent distinction foregoing one’s entry into the community, but further implies the differential of being able to realise gain from peaceful, contractual exchange of one’s goods based upon a value matrix of temporal, or time-based, considerations. It asks: will you defer gratification now for a higher reward at some future date? Some prefer immediate consumption, others delayed gratification; it is the latter case which tends towards a realisation of gain, as foregoing consumption now can provide higher gains, or profit, in the future. Whereas in the case of the former, one values immediate consumption more highly, and therefore does not delay gratification appropriately enough to contribute the necessary goods or assets towards more time-consuming, labour-intensive, and developmental pursuits which tend to appreciate in value. This important factor of time-consideration (referred to in Austrian economic theory as ‘time preference’) is a universal a priori such that it will play a role in any given economic situation. The socialist collective will still include those who prefer to delay gratification and co-ordinate for future returns, and it will most likely be those who form the body of bureaucrats which oversee, and yet do not have a proper investment in (qua non-owners), the administration of things.

From here, the question becomes: who is the right person to which the task may be deferred? There is a lengthy index of things which most of us are happy to defer as a responsibility of someone else. For example, while I could butcher a chicken if required, I would rather not, and am happy to defer that responsibility to another who is paid to do so, providing me with what I need to make dinner. Likewise, I will, in my paid work, take on responsibilities over people and things which others do not wish to do, and are happy to leave to me. Our products or services may be exchanged peacefully through the medium of money (even if, as it currently stands, the money used is horrendously unstable, inflated, untied to anything with a real asset value, etc—fiat currency) and there is no further cause for concern. Similarly, both of us will make our own time-based valuations of goods and capital. Both of us will have to consume immediately at least every day to stay alive and gain some enjoyment of idle time, but one or the other of us may display a greater preference for delaying more capital, in the form of savings and investments.

Carrying this same question over to the issue of the environment, when it comes to making firm judgements with suitable incentive structures, who is the right person to whom the task may be deferred? If the stewardship of the environment is between government agencies and private property owners, then in both cases the task has been deferred to someone else. But who is the better, and why? The Right-libertarian, and therefore my own, case is that environmental concerns are better, as a mutual factor of justice and probability (qualification and quantification), left in the hands of private owners. Those who are more stringently tied to ownership titles are, by default, more inclined to sustain a profound concern over the capital values of assets held.

This principle is equally as applicable to land and what’s on it as it is to anything else in a private economy. At its most basic level, one wishes to realise a greater return on future goods when consumption of them in the present is delayed—why are factors such as land, and how it’s employed, be any different? In the case of government ‘owners’ (nonowners, or ‘caretakers’), there is no stringent incentive structure, and therefore no same level of concern for anything except that which may be looted in a shorter term when held relative to the long-term returns desired by the private owner. These government nonowners may have a concern by way of public law—perhaps some vague notion of ‘value for taxpayer money’ or something to that effect—but this concern alone is not enough, particularly because they do not bear the full cost of waste, inefficiency, destruction, and so on. For example: if 100 people utilise a piece of land and even ten of them trash it, who will foot the bill? Although the clean-up operations will, as things currently are and all else equal, be organised by a local council, there is no proper structure in place to deter or disincentivise such trashing from even occurring. The council clean-up team, and the administrator-bureaucrats who sent them, do not personally front the cost of such measures, and instead rely on a predetermined budget. This means that there is nobody who is personally affected or put out by the presence of trashers. However, were the land privately owned, there is a personal tie (the owner’s) to the asset value of the land, and therefore destructive trashing behaviour will be thoroughly accorded with the appropriate measures, such as compensation, restitution, or expulsion. Equally, the owner being subject to the full-cost principle, will have an interest in keeping down insurance premiums and clean-up costs, and will therefore put in place stringent conditions, e.g. payment-for-entry, as well as security teams charged with monitoring the use of the land by the consumers on it at a given time. A very simple yet very effective yardstick to measure the validity of my claims here—and one which would be satisfactory for those empirically inclined—would be to watch and average the behaviour of consumers when occupying ‘public’ property against utilising space which they have paid to enter and is administered properly, such as private gardens or grounds.

Conditions in place, where does environmentalism factor in? Care for and stewardship of the land imply moral/ethical qualia, and therefore a wholly subjective assessment, of what it means to engage with the natural world, itself a changing and at times dubious human construct. In the economic assessment alone, as outlined (albeit briefly) above, there is little intrinsic merit in saying that any one given moral judgement should be imported into the calculations of profit and cost, capital value and loss, asset utilisation and non-utilisation, etc. For example, one private owner of land may realise greater returns on selling up huge swathes of land for environmentally destructive purposes, such as factory- or house-building. (To be sure, these uses are required and, in the instability of the globalised-state economy, probably desirable to some extent.) Yet in this case, what’s to stop him? It is a matter of two further economic injunctions (before we move onto the place of appropriate moral judgement): opportunity cost and insurance premiums. In brief, land is usually a sought-after investment as a way to stabilise one’s portfolio due to its nature of slow-but-sure growth potential; therefore, if one is set to realise greater returns, and a greater opportunity thereof, for maintaining and even increasing the value of the land in the direction of soil quality for agriculture, forestry for timber, pasture land for animals, and so forth, then the sacrifice made in selling up for more environmentally-destructive measures will not seem worthwhile. In a climate where all roads are leaning former—high soil quality for domestic agriculture and high quality timber are increasingly sought after goods, for example—it is only a matter of time before the former outweighs the latter, the opportunity costs favour the preservation, rather than tarmacking of, land. Likewise, one’s insurance premiums are likely to skyrocket if the behaviour and activity conducted on one’s land threaten pollution, despoliation, or threat to quality of life or even, in extreme cases, to life itself. If everything around the piece of land in this imagined scenario is privately owned—including waterways, hedgerows, and so forth—then the constant threat of legal action, coupled with hiking insurance premiums, altogether disincentivise such behaviour. Externalities are more difficult to slip under the proverbial rug if one is surrounded by other owners, with an interest in appreciating returns (all else equal), who are capable of and empowered to take action and injunctions against undesirable behaviours.

Objective considerations aside, what about the moral/ethical injunctions? Admittedly, these being more subjective, it is usually left to a matter of aesthetic taste and criteria for such moral judgements to hold ground. This is much more suited therefore to the realm of opinion, further away from the domain of tangible economic fact. However, it is worth pointing out that many do, annually, seek retreats (either long, short, or permanent), relief, and respite in the aesthetic beauty of the countryside. Lucrative property portfolios, parks, gardens, walkways, vineyards, orchards, woodlands, campsites, activity centres, trusts, etc spring up, suggesting that there are many who are keen to escape the noise, pollution, smog, dust, and psychologically-overbearing atmosphere of the big cities, and instead find some solace amongst birdsong and woodland.

Likewise, there are increasing reports detailing the way in which certain practices are negatively harming the human population, such as bio-chemical engineering, microplastics, and pollution, to borrow a couple of examples. (To refer briefly to an economic consideration: should these reports prove correct, as I suspect they will, then one’s own insurance premiums for engaging in this sort of consumption will go up, and therefore have an average impact of disincentivising the consumption of goods which are, by all accounts, harmful to both oneself, others, and the environment.) I, as a rural dweller myself, am entirely sympathetic to this need, understanding the desire to maintain the balanced, steadier, quieter pace of rural life itself. It is one of those situations more dialectical insofar as if we didn’t have it, and therefore didn’t know any better, then fine—but we do have it, do know better, and therefore should, in my estimation at least, have some concern for its preservation and well-being.

In the absence of any clear governmental responsibility or concern, and in the absence of any trustworthiness for government programmes (and, I argue, rightly so), the purpose of this piece has been to demonstrate that one can indeed hold tight to two convictions which are not mutually exclusive. The first is the conviction that private property rights are essential to human civilisation and peaceful relations, and the second is the conviction that there are reasons, both objective and subjective, for being concerned about the state of the environment. Human stewardship and responsible management have been practised for centuries, and it is worth resurrecting these practices, both economically and morally, before it is too late, without leaning too heavily on tax-funded, unpredictable bureaucrats to do the job.

The latter situation is akin to asking a bank robber to ensure that ten percent of his loot is donated to a charitable cause, and on this condition he will be let off the hook. It is time to reassess the role of private property rights in this equation, without dipping too heavily into the hysteria around total alarmism—although I appreciate that in the span of this article I have only been able to do so cursorily, and therefore have not given a total treatment of the matter.


Photo Credit.

Can Britain do business with Taliban-led Afghanistan?

I can’t say I’ve ever hosted the Taliban, although if presented with the opportunity, the Worshipful Company of Brewers wouldn’t have been my initial choice of venue.

This irony wasn’t lost on Daniel Evans, frontier markets and technology investor, co-founder of the Gibraltar Stock Exchange Group, and Chairman of the newly-founded Afghanistan Advisory Council (AAC).

Evans joked the venue would allow him to lay claim to successfully organising a piss-up in a brewery, although it must be said the event wasn’t a piss-up at all – partially because the drinks were appropriately alcohol free, but mainly because the foundation of the AAC marks the first actual step at rapprochement with Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.

All-in-all, a pretty serious affair. Serious enough to receive a written endorsement from Nooruddin Azizi, Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce:

“On behalf of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, I want to emphasize that the investment environment in Afghanistan is feasible, with strong security and government policies focused on economic development. As many know, Afghanistan is an untapped country with significant business and investment opportunities across various sectors, including energy, industry, infrastructure, mining, agriculture, and health.

We welcome any proposals and investments in Afghanistan, assuring you that the government will fully protect and support all initiatives.”

The launch was attended by businessmen from a variety of interested parties; railway construction, petrochemicals, international finance, and so on. Michael Mainelli, current President of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry and former Lord Mayor of the City of London was among those present, as well as Miles ‘Lord Miles’ Routledge, adventurer-turned-YouTuber-turned-junior member of the AAC.

Among other ambitions for a hospital, a hotel, a logistics centre, and a railway terminus, the AAC’s flagship proposal of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ), set to be attached to Kabul airport, has won the backing of Mohammad and Zahid Asif, Owner and Managing Director of Walid Titan Ltd respectively, who are providing the land for the zone.

The precise details of the SEZ have yet to be fleshed out, although it’s clear that the AAC is looking to Dubai’s International Finance Centre (IFC) as a model; a demarcated zone where the norms and customs of international commerce prevail, and regulations are to be drawn up on the advice of the AAC.

The SEZ is one of several projects set to be funded by a new National Growth Fund, which will provide resources to develop a diverse range of industries and projects, such as a far-reaching hospital construction programme. One of the hospital centres will be located in the SEZ. The AAC has been given the mandate to advise the creation of the fund.

One might ask why the Taliban would allow any of this. If one reads between the lines, the SEZ would allow what are essentially Western standards of conduct to take root in an otherwise Islamic theocratic state. Sure, it’s not exactly going to be Amsterdam but it’s hard to square such a proposal with the totalising ‘Islamofascist’ caliphate prophesised by thought leaders of the dilapidated pantheon of liberal-humanitarian interventionism.

The simple but surprising reality of the matter is the Afghans seriously want to get down to business. In fact, it’s becoming clear the Taliban are more eager to do business with the British than vice versa, and not without valid reason. They’re highly suspicious of the Americans, their opinion of the Russians isn’t much better, relations with Pakistan have massively deteriorated within the past year alone, and China and Iran look more like regional threats than potential allies.

Kabul, 7th August 2024, (Right) Nooruddin Azizi, The Minister for Industry & Commerce, (Left) Daniel Evans, Chairman, Afghanistan Advisory Council

As bizarre as it sounds, the Taliban’s view of the British continues to be informed by the Empire, which they regard in a similar manner to how many of us Moderns regard the Roman Empire; that is, as a milestone in human achievement. The British are viewed less as hated enemies and more as honourable and accomplished adversaries. If that’s not soft power, I don’t know what is!

As one would expect, the Afghans have zero appetite to be controlled by a foreign power, but they’re not completely isolationist; they’re quite happy to enlist the help of foreigners with the know-how required to stabilise their war-battered economy, having endured invasions from the USSR and the US-led coalition, ongoing skirmishes with groups like ISIS-K, and incoming Pashtun refugees from neighbouring Pakistan.

It’s a matter of political ideology whether it’s preferable to live in a less-developed but comparatively liberal country over a more-developed but comparatively illiberal one, but – as a general rule of thumb – it’s better to have functioning railways, roads, and hospitals than to not have them at all. Some things aren’t exactly ideological touchstones. Is it really so polarising to believe that Afghanistan should have a reliable supply of currency, rather than making do with sheets of borderline dust held together with glue and tape?

Beneath debates on the political and religious destiny of Afghanistan lies an economy which needs to be run regardless, and the AAC hasn’t so much muscled into this gap, but waltzed into it; partially because the organisation seems to be ahead of the curve on this issue, but also because its founding members felt they had nothing better to do.

On his release from jail in October 2023, having been arrested for not having his papers in order, Routledge – who described the experience as “the best networking opportunity I’ve ever had” – received an email from Evans with the subject line “Bored/gold mine lol” – a proposal which snowballed into setting up a full-on, nation-wide development fund with the blessing of the Afghan government.

Overall, the AAC is filling the vacuum left by a regime that doesn’t know what to do with Afghanistan. One suspects it’s pretty hard to see a path forward with that much egg on your face!

For the past two decades, Britain’s political system has stuck to the same playbook; a hodgepodge strategy of attempting to nag and bomb Afghanistan into becoming a liberal democracy with little-to-no regard for local idiosyncrasies and so forth.

Indeed, no country is a blank slate and Afghanistan is no exception, but more than an investment opportunity – that itself is laden with several obvious benefits; Afghanistan is rich with natural minerals – but a real chance to rehearse discombobulated statesmen and commentators in the virtues and practices which factor into good nation-building; which I cannot help but feel is the spiritual mission of the AAC, even if not said so outright.

Keir Starmer, take notes!


Photo Credit.

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